US Fed Watch Fed poised to launch QE3 It now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger QE3 next week As it stands at the moment, the incoming news has probably not been quite weak enough to prompt the Fed into providing more policy stimulus, such as a third round of asset purchases (QE3), at the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to signal a move in either direction We doubt that the FOMC's upcoming two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 25th April, will throw up any major changes. The minutes from the last meeting revealed little appetite among Fed... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed waiting to see which way the recovery breaks Next Tuesday's FOMC meeting (13th March) is expected to be a quiet affair, with Fed officials waiting to see whether the recent improvement evident in the labour market develops into a more vigorous... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed prepares to step into brave new world The Fed has already announced that it will be making some major changes to its monetary policy framework at the two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (25th January). Those changes will... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to delay any action until early next year The announcement last Wednesday, of coordinated action by the Fed, ECB and other central banks to boost global dollar liquidity, will presumably have increased speculation that the Fed could take... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for ways to boost policy at the zero bound Only five weeks after the Fed announced its plan to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings and to reinvest principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings back... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Operation Twist offers best hope among limited options Given the weakness of the incoming economic data, the Fed is now almost certain to do something at next week's FOMC meeting, but exactly what is still not entirely clear. The proposal to lengthen the... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE3 still unlikely, at least until next year As the recent slowdown in economic growth and the rebound in the unemployment rate have come at a time when core inflation has risen rapidly, the Fed is unlikely to announce a third round of asset... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't overreact to signs of slowdown We doubt that the signs of a renewed economic slowdown will prompt any knee-jerk reaction from the FOMC at its two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (22 nd June). The accompanying... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Bernanke steps into brave new world The conclusion of next week's two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday will mark the start of a brave new world, with Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to host the Fed's first post-meeting press conference. We... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to follow hawkish ECB's lead Despite signs that other central banks may be preparing to tighten policy, we don't expect to see the Fed following suit, either by calling an early halt to QE2 or raising interest rates later this... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't call an early halt to QE2 We don't anticipate that the stronger tone of the incoming economic data will prompt the Fed to curtail its plan to buy $600bn of Treasury securities by June at the next FOMC meeting, which concludes... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed needs to give QE2 time before making adjustments After announcing it would purchase an additional $600bn of Treasury securities at the last FOMC meeting in early November, it is very unlikely that the Fed will change course at next Tuesday's meeting... 7th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE2 unlikely to have a major economic impact (Oct 10) At this stage, it would be a fairly big shock if the Fed did not announce a new programme of asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (3rd November). Chairman... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read