US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December It is always possible that the Fed could surprise us with an unexpected rate hike next week, but we very much doubt that will happen, it just doesn’t fit Chair Janet Yellen’s more cautious style. At... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears The sudden stop in employment growth rules out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly now that the UK vote on whether to leave the European Union (EU) appears... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to leave door open to June rate hike Despite the marked improvement in financial conditions and fading fears over China’s economic outlook, the Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed can’t leave rates this low for much longer Despite the clear improvement in the incoming economic data over the past month, which has triggered a reversal of the earlier tightening in financial conditions, the chance of the Fed raising... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on the cusp of historic rate hike At next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on 16 th December, the Fed is now almost universally expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of between 0.25% and 0.50%. In the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay first rate hike until early 2016 It is highly unlikely that the Fed will spring a surprise rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 28th October, and even the odds of a hike at the December meeting have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch September lift-off looking increasingly like a done deal We don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 29th July. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for September lift-off With the incoming data now showing a clear pick-up in real economic growth and possible signs of an acceleration in wage growth and core price inflation, we expect the Fed to begin hiking interest... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed waiting for data to break one way or the other With no scheduled press conference or forecast update at next week's FOMC meeting, expectations about the timing of the Fed's first rate hike will hinge on any changes to the accompanying statement... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed close to embarking on return to normality With the labour market still evidently on fire in February, we expect the FOMC statement next Wednesday to omit the language that the Fed can be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Patient Fed now unlikely to raise rates until mid-year While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to drop “considerable time” language The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Timing of first hike becomes more finely balanced While the recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases at the meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 29th, it does mean the Fed is unlikely to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read