US Fed Watch More rate hikes on the way The continued strength of economic growth in the third quarter together with signs that wage growth and underlying inflation are accelerating will maintain pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Trump criticism won't derail Fed's plans The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But we expect the post-meeting statement to signal that, despite uncertainty over trade policy and criticism from President... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Recent market turmoil will not derail the Fed Despite political tensions in Europe and the uncertainty over trade policy, we expect the Fed to press ahead and raise interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. With second quarter GDP growth... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rising inflation will prompt faster tightening this year The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with signs that underlying inflationary pressures are continuing to build, officials may use the post-meeting statement... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening The rebound in inflation, rapid employment growth and the recently announced boost to Federal spending for the next two years should convince the Fed to raise rates by 25bp at Jerome Powell’s first... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for March rate hike Janet Yellen’s final FOMC meeting will pass with little fanfare, but the language of the accompanying policy statement looks set to strike a more hawkish tone. That would leave the Fed on course to... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fiscal stimulus will prompt faster tightening in 2018 At this stage, a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting is all-but guaranteed. Of more interest will be whether the increased prospect of a near-term fiscal stimulus prompts officials to revise up... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch FOMC meeting could clash with Chair announcement The Fed’s policy meeting next week could provide some insight into whether the majority of officials still support a December interest rate hike. But it will otherwise be overshadowed by the imminent... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to stand pat until next year A plethora of recent developments mean that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again until next year now, although we do expect it to announce the start of its balance sheet normalisation at... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December Given the continued weakness of core inflation, we now expect the Fed to delay the next interest rate hike until December. Accordingly, while there is a chance that the statement following next week’s... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still on track for a June rate hike The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, but the statement should keep open the prospect of a hike in June. Admittedly, the... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed signals an acceleration in the pace of tightening Last week Fed officials acted on a clearly preconceived plan to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which finishes on Wednesday 15th March. Buoyed by the post... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode until details of fiscal stimulus emerge Following its rate hike at last December’s meeting, the Fed will remain in wait-and-see mode until it has more clarity on the magnitude, composition and timing of the anticipated fiscal stimulus. We... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike? The uncertainty surrounding next week’s Fed meeting is not about the out come of that meeting – a 25 basis point rate hike is all but guaranteed – but over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read