US Economics Fed’s actions will speak louder than its words The Fed’s new average inflation framework implies that more stimulus measures are on the way, but it isn’t clear if officials will be ready to make wholesale changes at next week’s FOMC meeting... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed looks to strengthen forward guidance The upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on 29th July, will probably be uneventful, but the Fed could strengthen the forward guidance in its statement, announce revisions to its so-far disappointing... 22nd July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still has more policy options The Fed has several different policy options for putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 10 th June. But with yields already... 3rd June 2020 · 10 mins read
US Fed Watch Surveying the damage With the Fed having already slashed interest rates to zero and unveiled nine new lending programmes in recent weeks, officials will probably use next week’s FOMC meeting to take stock rather than to... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to lower rates to near-zero We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by an additional 50bp at the scheduled FOMC meeting next week, with a final 50bp cut at the April meeting taking the fed funds rate back to its crisis-era level... 11th March 2020 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to sit on its hands in 2020 Signs of improvement in the activity data and the trade ceasefire with China should reassure Fed officials that they have now done enough to support the economy. We expect the fed funds target range... 22nd January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates on hold for the next few years The Fed’s less dovish language, against a backdrop of fading downside risks, is why we think the Fed is now done cutting interest rates. We anticipate rates will remain at their current level of 1.50%... 4th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to cut rates again amid economic slowdown With the markets still fully pricing in another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting and officials doing nothing to push back against those expectations, there is little point trying to deny that... 23rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Mid-cycle adjustment continues The Fed looks set for another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The data haven’t yet deteriorated nearly enough to justify a larger 50bp move, although we do expect a further gradual slowdown... 11th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Insurance cut won’t prevent further slowdown The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp next week rather than the 50bp that some have been calling for. Fed officials will hope that move provides enough “insurance” against the downside risks... 24th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Rate cuts coming, but not until September We expect a further slowdown in economic growth to eventually prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, particularly with underlying inflation muted. But it is hard to see that happening before the... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Next move still likely to be a cut The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. Chair Jerome Powell may acknowledge in his post-meeting press conference that downside risks to the outlook are fading. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data rule out additional rate hikes With interest rates on hold, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on officials’ updated economic projections, which are likely to show a lower expected path for GDP growth and the fed funds... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to reverse course in 2020 The Fed will leave rates unchanged next week and may well include references to being “patient” in the policy statement and post-meeting press conference, to signal more clearly that a March rate hike... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Strong economy keeps gradual tightening on track The recent volatility in financial markets will not stop the Fed raising rates at its meeting next week. A bigger concern for the Fed is the renewed weakness in core inflation, which may prompt some... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Still on track for a December hike Although the Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s meeting, we expect the statement to reiterate the FOMC’s plan to continue gradually raising interest rates, with the next move... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read