US Fed Watch Peak hawkishness to continue for a little longer The continued strength of core inflation points to another 75bp rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting and rates may now rise slightly higher than we previously thought. But the FOMC’s new projections... 14th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch 50bp hikes to continue until inflation slows The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week and to signal that a similar move is coming in July. We still think a drop back in inflation will allow officials to ease the... 8th June 2022 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed’s hawkish transformation complete We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 50bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and to launch its quantitative tightening, with the cap on maturing principal allowed to roll off each month quickly rising... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to proceed cautiously despite war in Ukraine We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing five interest rate hikes for this year in total. We also... 9th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Will Fed signal that March rate hike is coming? With many Fed officials now either explicitly supporting, or at least “open to”, an interest rate hike in March, we would expect to see some acknowledgement of that in the statement issued after the... 19th January 2022 · 10 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed pivot will take rates to more than 1.5% in 2023 In sharp contrast to the surprisingly dovish November meeting, we expect Fed officials will use their December meeting to lay the ground for markedly tighter policy in the years ahead. The... 8th December 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still preparing ground for QE taper We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September... 15th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed not yet ready to conclude tapering discussion A few regional Fed Presidents are pushing for the Fed to begin tapering its Treasury and MBS purchases sooner rather than later. But with Chair Jerome Powell recently arguing that the recovery is... 21st July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Talking about talking about tapering Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with recent data leaving the economy still some way from making... 9th June 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Newfound optimism unlikely to change dovish stance We expect the statement following next week’s FOMC meeting to strike a more optimistic tone on the economic outlook, but Chair Jerome Powell is likely to emphasise in his press conference that any... 21st April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Holding the (dovish) line We expect the Fed to leave policy unchanged at its mid-March meeting, though officials will try and use the statement and updated economic projections to push back on market expectations that rate... 10th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Taper talk premature Aside from acknowledging the weakness in the incoming economic data in the policy statement, we expect the Fed to leave its policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. The additional fiscal... 20th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Tinkering at the margins We expect the Fed to keep its main policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. But officials are set to unveil new guidance on their asset purchases, most likely pledging to maintain them... 9th December 2020 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode Having rolled out major changes over the past few months and with the incoming economic data still solid, we expect the Fed to stand pat at next week’s meeting and leave its statement virtually... 28th October 2020 · 8 mins read