Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 19th December 2024, 3:00PM GMT Join our senior economists for this dive into the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024, and a look-ahead to see how these banks will calibrate monetary policy in the coming year...
US Employment Report Preview Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strength We expect the Boeing strike and two recent hurricanes to have temporarily cooled the labour market in October. We think non-farm payrolls rose by 100,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to ease further We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%. 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand to moderate We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth. 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow The fading of weather-related support and broader evidence of easing labour demand lead us to expect a smaller 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April. We expect the unemployment rate to be... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand still gradually easing We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth to slow despite strong payrolls We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend set to intensify A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth reliant on non-cyclical sectors After the near 200,000 gain in payroll employment in November, which included the return of 47,000 workers who had been on strike, we expect a more muted 150,000 increase in December. We also... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Stronger employment growth won’t last While we expect the return of striking workers to help non-farm payrolls rise by a stronger 200,000 in November, underlying labour demand probably eased. 30th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still on firm downward trend After the 336,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in September, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in October. Moreover, despite some strength in labour demand, wage growth continues to ease. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth continues on downward trend We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6th October. 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth slowing towards pre-pandemic pace We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, illustrating that despite the apparent resilience of GDP growth, employment growth is still trending lower. 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
