US Economics Weekly Fight over debt ceiling likely to be even worse The 11th hour fiscal cliff deal to avert most of the scheduled tax increases was better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling and the scheduled spending cuts have... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe The negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff are, as we always expected, going down to the wire. This is supposed to be political theatre. The failure of Boehner's "Plan B" illustrates that any deal has... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stance We welcome the Fed’s decision to link the timing of its first interest rate hike to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But this tweak didn’t actually alter the stance of... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households still paying down debt The household debt to disposable income ratio fell to a nine-year low of 113% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 134%. The deleveraging process will continue for a few more years, although with... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Concerns over student loans overdone The rapid rise in the value of outstanding student loans and the spike in the default rate have fuelled fears that student loans are the next bubble. Aside from the risk that excessive borrowing early... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in house prices will reduce negative equity The housing recovery continues to go from strength-to-strength. House prices have risen by 5% over the past 12 months and there is an upside risk of a further acceleration. The faster prices rebound... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower gasoline prices a timely boost The encouraging noises emanating from Washington make it more likely, although it is still far from certain, that a deal to prevent the fiscal cliff will be reached and that any adverse impact on the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Focus quickly shifts to fiscal cliff negotiations Some have argued that the election result, which maintained the broad status quo of a divided Congress, was the worst possible outcome for the fiscal cliff negotiations. But as far as the fiscal cliff... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption gaining some traction It is encouraging that only a small part of the recent acceleration in consumption growth is due to the release of Apple’s iPhone 5 and that the recovery in the housing market is gathering pace. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Impact of QE3 already fading The initial reaction to the Fed's QE3 announcement in mid-September was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, only a few weeks later, things don't look quite as promising. Agency MBS yields have... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment stalls The latest monthly data suggest that business investment contracted slightly in the third quarter, probably because of a growing caution with the fiscal cliff looming closer and the euro-zone crisis... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Burgeoning housing recovery won't transform GDP growth The promising recovery in the housing market will continue during the fourth quarter and next year. But because housing accounts for only a tiny share of GDP, the recovery won’t transform the US from... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are things better than four years ago? The fall in the real median household income to a 16-year low in 2011 means that many Americans are worse off now than they were when President Obama first took office. But the whole economy is... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
