US Economics Weekly Low inflation may concern the Fed The Fed’s preferred PCE measure of core inflation could soon fall to around 1%. Together with the recent weakening in the tone of the incoming activity data, this may mean the Fed is less inclined to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in energy prices could provide much-needed boost The slump in energy prices suggests that second-quarter GDP growth might not be as bad as we had initially feared when the incoming data for March proved to be unexpectedly weak. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the annual spring swoon? The run of weak economic data reports, which continued last week with the news of an unexpected decline in March retail sales, has led to speculation that the US economy is enduring yet another spring... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter unlikely to be as good as the first It is impressive that in the first quarter, when households were hit by higher taxes and everyone had to contend with a spike in gasoline prices, GDP probably grew at an annualised rate of at least 3... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US depositors unlikely to suffer same fate as Cypriots The Cypriot bank bailout, which imposed losses on bondholders and large depositors, is never likely to be repeated in the US. For a start, while the Cypriot banking system is equivalent to a massive... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A domestically driven recovery We are heartened by the recent signs that economic growth is being driven by more sustainable domestic forces rather than potentially temporary overseas influences. This leaves the economy well placed... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market inflation pressures won't amount to much The current signs of inflationary pressure in the labour market will probably amount to nothing. Although we are mindful that accelerating earnings growth could be an early indication that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery picking up pace despite headwinds The US recovery still appears to be on track and is possibly even strengthening a little, despite the lingering impact of the expiry of the payroll tax cut, the recent surge in gasoline prices and the... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses shrugging off fiscal uncertainty The sequestration spending cuts will probably only remain in place for a couple of months until Congress reaches a wider budget agreement, so the overall impact on the economy should be modest. More... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will financial stability concerns force the Fed to curb QE3? In light of last week's revelations in the minutes from January's FOMC meeting, Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony this week will be watched particularly closely for any signs that he is... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Currency wars and cash hoarding concerns overblown All the recent talk of currency wars is overdone and holds few implications for the US economy. The rise in the dollar against the yen has just been offset by a fall against the euro. The dollar trade... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surge in gasoline prices comes at just the wrong time As if households didn't already have enough to worry about with the expiry of the payroll tax cut at the start of this year, they suddenly find themselves having to cope with a sudden spike in... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we wrong to shrug off the fall in GDP? Even after taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, we still don’t believe that the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter is much of a concern. Contractions in government spending and... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Republicans picking their battles The Republicans opted to raise the debt ceiling temporarily because they believed it was politically expedient to link their demands for spending cuts to one of the many other potential budget... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Payroll tax hike will curtail consumption growth The expiry of the payroll tax cut could easily bring the acceleration in consumption growth over the second half of last year to a juddering halt this January. Some of the blow to real incomes will be... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
