US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly New budget committee not necessarily DOA The new budget conference committee has been written off as dead on arrival by most people before it even starts work. Given the dysfunctional state of Congress and the failure of the deficit... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Crunch time It’s good news that Congress appears to be moving towards a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. The biggest problem is that the Republican... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown could continue until debt ceiling deadline Congress appears to be no closer to resolving the now week-old government shutdown. Our best guess is that a comprehensive agreement will be reached sometime close to the 17th October debt ceiling... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly This is no way to run a country Even if Congress can reach an agreement to renew the Federal government's spending authority before it expires this Monday, which is looking increasingly unlikely, there is a much more serious battle... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to understand that sometimes, less is more We were a little surprised by the Fed's conclusion last week that it wasn't ready to begin tapering its asset purchases. As we wrote in our Fed Watch ahead of the meeting, however, a tapering was "far... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market still strengthening It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fannie, Freddie and financial repression The proposed winding down of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-owned mortgage finance companies, is normally framed in terms of protecting taxpayers from having to pick up the tab in the... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Global developments unlikely to influence Fed tapering Recent global and domestic developments are more likely to lead the Fed to taper QE3 by a relatively small amount at September’s policy meeting rather than prompt it to hold fire until October or... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Threat from twin deficits begins to recede The incoming news over the past couple of weeks suggests that the so-called twin deficits – the current account and Federal budget – are both improving, in the case of the Federal budget quite... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand is building momentum The latest signs that economic growth is gathering momentum are especially encouraging as they imply that a broad-based improvement in domestic demand may be underway. A continuation of the housing... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Further pick-up in GDP growth expected The 1.7% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP was pretty modest, even if it did come in above market expectations. Nevertheless, most other data releases last week indicated that GDP growth is... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook improving for both retailers and industry The second half of the year is likely to be much better than the first for both retailers and manufacturers. Faster income growth should help households shrug off the lingering effects of January’s... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE3 tapering in September still a good bet We don’t think the balanced discussion that took place at the FOMC meeting in mid-June means that the Fed is less likely to slow the pace of its monthly asset purchases sooner rather than later. In... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
