US Economics Weekly Consumption growth set to accelerate Consumption growth has been remarkably stable at around 2% since the recovery began in mid-2009. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the pick-up in income growth and past gains in householdwealth will... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but a range of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Quality of jobs being created is above average Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter ends on a high note The data released in the last week of the second quarter added to other evidence suggesting that the economy is getting back on track after a disastrous first quarter. This provided further tentative... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Healthcare spending weakness spills over into Q2 Following the reported decline in first-quarter hospital revenues in the Quarterly Services Survey, we had anticipated that last week's GDP revision would show the economy contracted much more... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too complacent on inflation We don’t agree with Janet Yellen’s view that the recent rise in inflation is just noise. Instead, it is clear to us that a widespread strengthening in price pressures in areas as diverse as rents... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The deleveraging process is largely over The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling Treasury yields a new conundrum While we don't have a singular explanation for the downward trend in Treasury yields, we are still confident that yields will eventually rebound. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to recover to 3.0... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses testing their pricing power Our view that core inflation will increase faster than the Fed expects is based on expectations that both rent of shelter and medical inflation will continue to rise and that an acceleration in wage... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic outlook remains positive We are unconcerned by the more mixed data for April since the upward trend in sales and production is still firmly in place. More generally, the improving survey evidence points to a pick-up in... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banks lending more freely The rapid expansion in bank loans since the turn of the year is a sure sign that the economic outlook is brighter than the stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth suggested. Loans to businesses are... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can the recovery continue without housing? The apparent crumbling in the housing recovery has, at least temporarily, removed a valuable support to GDP growth. But the wider economic recovery will carry on regardless and it may not be long... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off winter malaise The more data we see on economic activity in March, the more we're reassured that the drop-off in the preceding few months was almost entirely due to the unseasonably severe winter weather. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
