US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Expansion of health insurance not boosting wider economy Although 10 million more people now have health insurance following the introduction of the ACAprovisions last year, the data suggest that trends in healthcare consumption and inflation have... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinking Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to complete QE taper with GDP growth still strong Recent financial market volatility won’t prevent the Fed from announcing an end to its asset purchases this week, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The bottom line is that... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising dollar reflects economic strength Even a further rise in the dollar above its current four-year high won’t prevent a period of higher inflation and stronger GDP growth. It would be odd to conclude that the dollar will significantly... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Spring of hope or winter of despair? Last week was the best of times and the worst of times. Just as it looked as though the US recoverywas finally moving into a higher gear, as credit conditions eased and the fiscal drag faded, the142... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in small business lending to gather pace The main reason why the stock of loans to small businesses has yet to surpass its previous peak is because weak sales have restrained the demand for new borrowing. The recent rise in the NFIB small... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook brightening The recent fall in equity prices and stagnation in house prices has not taken much of the gloss off the strengthening in the other economic news. As such, the economic outlook is even brighter now... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
