US Economics Weekly Rise (and fall) of the machines The recent weakness in durable goods orders and shipments is not due to a mining-related slump triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Instead, it is principally due to a drop back in industrial... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the Fed most fear a potential bond market rout? The downward revisions to the FOMC's interest rate projections last week suggest that Fed officials are caught in two minds between beginning to hike rates in June or September. We still think that a... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector boosts its borrowing The $79bn increase in household debt in the fourth quarter was dwarfed by the $211bn increase in non-financial corporate debt. The latter was the biggest increase since 2007. 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed positions itself for a June rate hike In her congressional testimony last week, Chair Janet Yellen appeared to lay the groundwork for the Fed to begin raising rates in June. Yes, the exact timing is still data dependent. But assuming we... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Oil price slump bad news for Texas and North Dakota The collapse in crude oil prices does not bode well for Texas and North Dakota, the two key producers of shale oil. These states have experienced a surge in oil production since 2008 and are now... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted productivity growth holding back real wage gains The weakness of wage growth is partly due to the near-stagnation in productivity. Unfortunately, the news last week that non-farm productivity was unchanged over 2014 as a whole, suggests there is... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Big number of small winners > small number of big losers Last week, mixed news on corporate earnings and an unexpected decline in underlying capital goods orders in December renewed fears that recent market moves are somehow a net negative for the US... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's patient approach at odds with incoming data While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise interest rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How hard will the oil price slump hit mining investment? Following the collapse in crude oil prices, a sizable drop in mining investment is inevitable. Nevertheless, the shale oil boom, which has been going for less than a decade, is so new that it’s hard... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves provide a further fillip to growth The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
