US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic demand growth poised to accelerate The unexpected decline in June's retail sales was a disappointment and, more generally, the rebound in underlying sales in the second quarter has been weaker than the turnaround last year, when... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed lift-off won't be delayed by Greece or China Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday this week couldn't have been better timed for those wondering whether Greece's potential exit from the euro would... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will GDP growth ever hit 3% again? As things stand now, GDP is on track for a 2.3% increase this year, which would be very similar to the growth rates achieved in 2012, 2013 and 2014. It appears that GDP growth is stuck in a rut. It is... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why hasn't the fading fiscal drag boosted GDP growth? With the best will in the world towards the anti-austerians, the bigger fiscal squeeze in 2013 had amuch smaller impact on the economy's performance than many feared, while the more recentfading of... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Myth of the weak consumer exposed The conventional wisdom is that consumers have remained unusually cautious during this recovery. But between the middle of last year and the middle of this year, consumption appears to have been... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is real GDP really mis-measured? The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surge in trade deficit will soon be reversed This week we expect to learn that, rather than edging up by 0.2% annualised as the first estimate indicated, first-quarter GDP contracted by 0.7%. The principal reason for the revision is that net... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of consumption not due to new health care rules The introduction of Obamacare doesn't appear to have had any lasting downward impact on medical care consumption. Spending did decline in the first few months of last year, but it has rebounded... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in nominal business sales not a concern The slowdown in the annual growth rate of business sales is not a concern since sales are measured in nominal terms. That growth rate has been affected more by the slump in energy prices rather than... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak first quarter won't stop the Fed hiking rates this year The Fed is still likely to raise its policy rate later this year. A September lift-off is the marginal favourite, but June and July are possibilities, if it becomes clear quickly that the first... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in retail sales has a lot further to run The weakness of real consumption growth in the first quarter is puzzling since the slump in energy prices effectively gave a large tax cut to households. In that respect, it appears to have parallels... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed tightening pace dependent on market reaction New York Fed President William Dudley noted last week that the pace of rate hikes will depend a lot on the reaction to the initial lift-off in financial markets. The upshot is that, while there is an... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Construction weakness due to seasonal adjustment failure At first glance, the recent monthly construction spending figures look awful. The three-month-on-three-month growth rate of residential construction spending at least climbed back into positive... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
