US Economics Weekly Tax cuts won’t pay for themselves This Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress, which is the traditional forum for new Presidents to unveil details of their economic plans. With Trump hinting... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business sentiment surges in aftermath of Trump win The rise in the NFIB index in January indicated that, in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s election victory, small business owners were the most optimistic they had been in more than a decade... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Still waiting for clarity on fiscal policy The flurry of executive orders slowed to a crawl last week, suggesting that President Donald Trump and his administration have realised that there are limits on his ability to govern by diktat. If... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Considerable uncertainty over outlook for inflation With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump takes over Two months after his surprise election night victory, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States this Friday. We said on election night that, more than anything else... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing slowly pulling out of slump Manufacturing appears to be slowly pulling out of its recent slump stemming from the big surge in the dollar in 2014 and 2015, with the ISM manufacturing index and manufacturing employment both... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year The lack of a sustained acceleration in wage growth suggests the Fed will be in no rush to hike rates again early next year. The stagnation in productivity, however, means that even the current level... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy? With the Republicans maintaining control of both Houses of Congress, Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect that the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act, which overhauled the financial sector... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
