US Economics Weekly Fed still to convince the markets of further rate hikes Fed officials continue to anticipate one more rate hike in the second half of this year, but markets are not even convinced that the Fed will hike rates again within the next two years. The Fed has... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s dilemma getting worse The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but faces a growing dilemma over its plans for the rest of the year. Core inflation has dropped back recently, while... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook for consumption growth bright The rise in real consumption in April, following an upwardly revised gain in March means that a sharp increase in consumption growth in the second quarter is now largely baked in the cake. Following... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Little scope for participation rate to keep rising While the overall participation rate has continued to trend down, there has been a sharp rebound in the share of 25-54 year-olds in the labour force. This has added 1½ million additional people to the... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is rising household debt a concern? The latest New York Fed report on consumer debt and credit made waves this week with the news that household debt surpassed its 2008 peak in dollar terms in the first quarter. But that is nothing to... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market very close to full health Almost every indicator suggests that US labour market conditions are the tightest they have been since the financial crisis, possibly even the tightest in decades. Nearly every sector is now operating... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could a foreign profit tax pay for Trump’s fiscal plans? The tax plan released by the White House on Wednesday was short on detail, but looked broadly similar to President Donald Trump’s pre-election plan. With the deep cuts to individual income and... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Competitive pressures to weigh on core inflation The unexpected decline in core consumer prices in March is not a signal of sudden weakness in the real economy. Nevertheless, it is partly due to heightened competition in some sectors, which will... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Investment growth to pick up this year First quarter GDP growth is shaping up to be weak again this year, but one bright spot is likely to be a big increase in investment. The rebound in oil prices, continued recovery in the housing market... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of auto sales less alarming than it seems The recent weakness of new motor vehicle sales has been causing a bit of alarm, but there are good reasons to think that fears of a sudden collapse in demand will prove to be overblown. In any case... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump’s agenda gets a reality check The debate over the Republicans’ health care bill last week is the clearest indication yet that implementing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda won’t be as easy as he may have hoped. Although... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident despite softer start to 2017 The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp last week may initially seem a little hard to square with the apparent weakening in the economic data since the start of the year, with the Atlanta... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to accelerate pace of policy tightening After the Fed’s co-ordinated attempts to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, another 25 basis point hike is fully priced into... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed about to err with another rate hike? Fed officials appear to have embarked on a co-ordinated attempt to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting in mid-March. The improvement in the survey evidence... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
