US Economics Weekly Are the skyrocketing ISM surveys too good to be true? The surge in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in September leaves them consistent with annual GDP growth of nearly 4%, but there are some doubts over whether activity really is that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation In her speech earlier this week, Chair Janet Yellen stressed that, despite the weakness of core inflation this year, the Fed still intends to push ahead with further interest rate hikes, with most... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to press ahead despite inflation "mystery" As the statement and updated projections from this week’s FOMC meeting made clear, a majority of Fed officials remain convinced that the recent weakness of core inflation is mostly due to transitory... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in median income a welcome improvement The rapid rebound in real median household income over the past few years, from a 16-year low in 2011 to a record high in 2016, illustrates that it is not just the top five percent who are benefitting... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stopgap debt ceiling deal makes the Fed’s job harder A number of developments this week – including Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s resignation from the Fed, the stopgap deal to keep the government funded for only three months and the arrival of Hurricane... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Can Trump hit the 3% growth target after all? The upward revisions to second-quarter GDP growth, which is now estimated to have been 3.0% annualised, suggest that the ambitious growth targets set by the White House may already have been achieved... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Household debt not a concern Household debt levels may now exceed their pre-crisis peaks in dollar terms but, more importantly, debt remains at an easily manageable level relative to disposable incomes and, after factoring in low... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Productivity growth likely to remain muted The recent pick-up in productivity growth is at least partly due to tighter conditions in the labour market, with the dwindling pool of the unemployed forcing firms to invest in additional... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year The Fed is unlikely to make any major policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting, but the statement will probably concede that the recent drop back in inflation has been more broad-based than Chair... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What can past tightening cycles tell us about Fed policy? Markets focused this week on supposedly dovish comments in Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress, but in truth she did little more than repeat the existing Fed line. As long as... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target The recent drop back in core inflation, even as the unemployment rate has fallen further, adds to the evidence that the Phillips curve has flattened. The reduced sensitivity of inflation to shifts in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Illinois’ budget crisis a one-off? Even if Illinois legislators manage to agree on a new budget and stave off the threat of a credit rating downgrade in the near-term, adverse demographics mean that the public finances in Illinois and... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will falling oil prices knock the economy off course? The further drop in oil prices this week, to below $43pb, means that the recovery in mining investment seen in the first half of the year may be at least partly reversed in the second. That said, we... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
