US Economics Weekly Will rising oil prices hold the economy back? The rally in crude oil prices in recent months ought to be a negative for a net oil importer like the US, but we don’t expect the increase, up to now at least, to prevent an acceleration in GDP growth... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth to trend higher The job opening and labour turnover report and NFIB survey released this week suggest that labour market conditions continue to tighten and point to wage pressures rising further this year. We still... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will inflation overshoot? We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising interest rates choke off the expansion? The further rise in 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2011 dominated the markets this week and there are signs that the Fed’s policy tightening is starting to feed through to the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Have the tax cuts flopped? The weakness of real consumption growth, which appears to have slowed to only 1% annualised in the first quarter, suggests that the recent tax cuts have so far failed to provide any meaningful boost... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the digital economy raise productivity? Labour productivity growth picked up in 2017 and we suspect that it will rebound a little further over the next couple of years, as rising capacity constraints and the tightening labour market... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter slowdown all about consumption The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s new economic projections implausibly strong During his first post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell managed to signal faster rate hikes over the coming years while simultaneously calming the bond market by playing down the risks... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising prime-age participation a new structural trend The surge in job growth in February, which was fuelled by a rise in new entrants to the labour force, supports the doves’ view that there is still hidden slack in the labour market. But the story isn... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising trade deficit may embolden the protectionists Following the move this week to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high in January is likely to have bolstered President Donald Trump’s... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising Our long-held belief that a rebound in core inflation and faster economic growth, partly due to fiscal stimulus, would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates four times this year is rapidly becoming... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Near-term outlook bright, but tougher times lie ahead With the economy set to receive an additional fiscal boost following the recent deal in Congress to raise the discretionary spending caps, we are revising up our GDP growth forecasts for both this... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in inflation is the real deal The January consumer price data were the clearest sign yet that inflationary pressures are beginning to build. While inflation was boosted by a rebound in clothing prices and a recovery in vehicle... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
