US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed raising risks of slowdown further ahead The further rise this week in market interest rate expectations for the next 12 months brought them almost in line with our own long-held and once-hawkish projections. But investors are increasingly... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the ISM surveys too good to be true? The ISM surveys released this week suggest that the economy is set for another quarter of growth above 4% annualised. We suspect that will prove a little too optimistic, but the bottom line is that... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures continue to mount Data this week showed core inflation hitting a decade high in July, even before the impact of the recent tariffs has had a chance to fully feed through. Against that backdrop, the Fed is almost... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy riding wave of fiscal stimulus The acceleration in GDP growth, to an impressive 4.1% annualised in the second quarter, is principally due to the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed at the start of this year. Unfortunately, there is... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong growth will keep Fed hiking despite Trump The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Powell takes centre stage The financial markets will have one eye on President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony is likely... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Booming activity and tariffs adding to price pressures Activity is booming, with employment up by more than 200,000 again in June and second-quarter GDP growth apparently close to 4% annualised. But, alongside the recently imposed tariffs, strong activity... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off trade uncertainty Concerns over trade policy weighed on the markets this week, with only a brief respite from President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to cancel the planned announcement of new investment... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger growth not generating major imbalances After the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by another 25bp, Fed Chair Jerome Powell claimed in the post-meeting press conference that “the economy is doing very well” – we couldn’t agree more... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly G7 summit to highlight divisions on trade America’s isolation on trade policy, which will be on full show at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, raises the (admittedly still small) risks of a worst-case scenario in which the US tears up NAFTA... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Despite the sharp rebound in core inflation this year, there seems to be a growing belief in the markets that the Fed is now prepared to allow inflation to rise above the 2% target without stepping up... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
