US Economics Weekly Fed still taking its cue from the bond market Fed officials signalled this week that they are content for now to take their cue from the bond market, with Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech giving a strong hint that a September rate cut is... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumer strength presents a dilemma for the Fed The Trump administration’s surprise announcement this week that it intended to delay the introduction of the 10% tariff on more than $150bn of finished consumer goods may have saved the Holidays, but... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulating to the markets With economic growth slowing rather than collapsing and both wage and price inflation rebounding in recent months, further interest rate cuts are hard to justify on purely economic terms. Admittedly... 9th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump ramps up pressure on the Fed Despite cutting rates by 25bp this week, the Fed gave no indication that it is lining up another cut soon or that this will mark the start of the extended easing cycle investors are hoping for. But... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly 25bp rate cut may not go down well in the markets The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting. Despite the stronger-than-expected GDP data released on Friday, however, fed funds futures still put the odds of a larger... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumers to the rescue? We expect to learn next week that second-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.6% annualised, from 3.1% in the first, which should reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the FOMC... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell confirms cut; debt ceiling crisis looms Chair Jerome Powell signalled earlier this week that the Fed still intended to push ahead with a July rate cut, despite the post-G20 trade truce, the resilience of the labour market and signs of a... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Any G-20 trade truce unlikely to last If the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G-20 tomorrow is successful, we would expect both sides to agree to resume negotiations and hold off on imposing new tariffs. But, given the... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed acknowledges rising fears about outlook As far as the markets are concerned, this week the Fed all-but guaranteed a July rate cut. On balance, we still suspect that a delay until September is a little more likely, but much will depend on... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to unveil panic rate cut next week The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariff threats rock weakening economy The shock news that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on all imports from Mexico comes amid mounting evidence that the economy has already lost considerable momentum. The May employment... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
