US Economics Weekly Trade “deal” leaves plenty of unknowns The apparent agreement between the US and China to avoid the December increase in tariffs and begin a phased rollback of existing tariffs, together with the more upbeat tone from the Fed, all but... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold for a lot longer than just next week The incoming data this week were, on balance, positive and certainly wouldn’t prompt the sort of “material reassessment” of the outlook that Fed officials have said would be necessary to cut interest... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly External drag starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further over the coming months, but the latest data suggest that the slowdown in the fourth quarter won’t be quite as bad as we had previously feared. 27th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebound a sign of things to come The key housing releases this week provided further evidence that the big decline in mortgage rates is feeding through to a rebound in residential investment. That won’t be enough to prevent the... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed now on prolonged hold We expect economic growth to slow over the coming quarters, but the fading downside risks from the global backdrop and trade policy, together with new, less dovish language from the Fed means we are... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further in the fourth quarter, but the recent stabilisation in the activity surveys, along with the growing prospect of a meaningful trade truce with China... 8th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s work is not done yet Although the clear message from the Fed this week was that they do not intend to ease policy further, we expect a continued slowdown in economic growth and persistently below target inflation will... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly PMIs suggest economy may be stabilising The Fed will probably cut interest rates for third consecutive time at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. That will come shortly after GDP figures for the third quarter are... 25th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Are consumers finally flagging? For a short time earlier this year, it appeared that US households would ride to the rescue of the entire global economy, but the more recent incoming data suggest that consumer spending growth is... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “mini deal” won’t prevent further slowdown Trade talks with China look set to conclude today with a “mini deal”, reducing the immediate risks of a further rise in tariffs. But existing tariffs will remain in place, including the September... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker data put the Fed on the spot again The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a decade-low in September together with the fall in the non-manufacturing index to a three-year low triggered renewed fears that the US economy is headed... 4th October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown to continue regardless of political drama The impeachment inquiry launched by the House Democrats against President Donald Trump will dominate the headlines over the coming months. It is unlikely to have any major impact on markets or the... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to fix its plumbing problem The Fed voted to cut its key policy rate by another 25bp earlier this week, but it is deeply split over what to do next. Close to one-third of the FOMC is projecting another rate cut before year-end... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to cut despite rising inflation and trade optimism The Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by another 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. But rising core inflation, the still-solid incoming activity data and the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets over-react to news of new trade talks In a week of mixed economic data releases, it was the news that the US and China would resume trade talks next month that proved to be the biggest development – pushing the S&P 500 back toward a... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still little sign of trade war drag The trade dispute with China may be escalating at a rapid pace but, despite the concerns of Fed officials, there is still little evidence that this is having a significant impact on the economy. 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
