US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Harris plans major tax hikes After unveiling plans to boost spending and cut taxes for the middle-class in a big speech a couple of weeks ago, Vice President Kamala Harris has quietly acknowledged since then that she intends to... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly 25bp or 50bp? The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less... 23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly More good data all around The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Temporary disruption or more serious downturn? In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets... 9th August 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut We were initially uncertain whether the notable slowdown in shelter inflation in June’s CPI report was the start of the long-awaited easing in housing inflation, but the latest all-tenant rent data... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation pressures rapidly easing Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the Fed is looking for “more good data” to strengthen its confidence that inflation will return to 2%. That is exactly what the June CPI and PPI... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump now has clear lead Following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which appears to have hit his polling numbers and gone down badly with big donors, there is clearly now a good chance that he drops out of the race... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden debate woes leave Trump ahead Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance leaves Donald Trump as the narrow favourite to win this November’s presidential election. There isn’t an alternative Democratic candidate who would fare any... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook deteriorates further This week the CBO released new projections showing that the Federal deficit is expected to be $1.9trn, or 6.7% of GDP, in the current 2024 fiscal year that ends this September. That projection is more... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data not yet a cause for concern We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
