US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the economy is increasingly likely to fall into recession in 2023, although the risks of a downturn beginning before the end of this year still appear... 2nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data indicate wage growth will drop back The job openings and quit rates were little changed in September, but the downward trends over the past six months point to an easing of labour market conditions which will weigh more heavily on wage... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market is cooling The sharp fall in job openings in August will be welcomed by the Fed as a sign that labour market conditions are starting to move back into balance. That won’t prevent further aggressive interest rate... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish 75bp hike The Fed stuck to the script in delivering a 75bp rate hike at its September meeting, but in our view still managed to deliver a hawkish message with the accompanying projections, which imply an... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update A closer look at the diverging activity surveys We think the S&P Global composite PMI’s prediction of an imminent plunge in GDP will prove well wide of the mark, with the latest hard data pointing to growth of 3% annualised in the third quarter. At... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update New ADP surveys may be more useful in time The new ADP surveys of employment and wages, unveiled today, have the potential to be a useful independent source of labour market data, but for now their value is hampered by their short history. 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Aug.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the chances of a recession within the next year have risen markedly. That said, the immediate risks still appear to be low, with the boost to real incomes... 31st August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update How will the midterms affect the economic outlook? The Republican party is on track to regain control of at least the House in the upcoming midterms, though the recent narrowing in the polls means that is no longer the slam dunk it once appeared... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Student loan changes arguably a fiscal tightening President Biden has finally unveiled a plan to forgive some student debt via executive order. But the accompanying announcement that the pandemic-era moratorium on student debt will definitely expire... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is there really such thing as a ‘jobful’ recession? While history shows that recessions can begin even while employment is still rising, the current rate of payroll employment growth is far too strong to be consistent with an economic downturn. By the... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in delinquencies not a major threat The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
