US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor Narrow money growth has turned negative as savers have shifted out of bank deposits and into money market funds and bonds, which now offer significantly higher returns. Bank loan growth remains robust... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Are small banks and CRE the next doom loop? Fears over small regional banks in the US have focused on the unrealised losses on debt securities and deposit insurance but, in what would have echoes of the savings and loan crisis, maybe we should... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed plays for time with dovish hike The 25bp rate hike and new projections unveiled by the Fed today were towards the more dovish end of potential outcomes. Despite recent strong economic data, officials acknowledged the likely hit from... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update What the SVB collapse means for the Fed Even if the collapse of several mid-tier banks doesn’t develop into a full-blown systemic crisis, it will more than likely trigger a credit crunch. That raises the risk that the economy will suffer a... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update SVB collapse a reminder of financial risks The circumstances of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse are unique enough that it probably won’t trigger a widespread financial contagion. Nevertheless, it is a timely reminder that when the Fed... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show drop back in both openings and quits The JOLTS survey showed a drop back in job openings in January, with the timelier job postings data from Indeed pointing to a more marked deterioration in labour market conditions in February. 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell testimony confirms higher peak in rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that interest rates are set to rise higher than we previously anticipated. But with most evidence still pointing to economic weakness and markedly lower... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update American protectionism and global fracturing While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Recession or economic resurgence? The unexpected surge in payroll employment in January has led to claims of an economic resurgence that will force the Fed to keep hiking interest rates but, on balance, we still think the real economy... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Tighter lending standards point to a weak H1 The surge in interest rates and tightening in credit conditions last year resulted in a broad-based plunge in loan demand in the fourth quarter. Most banks expect to continue tightening standards this... 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still looking for a “couple” more hikes As expected following a blitz of speeches by officials ahead of the blackout window, the Fed raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but tempered any hopes of a major... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fall in quits consistent with slower wage growth Despite the rebound in JOLTS job openings in December, voluntary quits fell slightly and point to a further moderation in both wage growth and PCE core services (ex housing) inflation. 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jan.) Our tracking models now suggest the economy is more likely than not to be in recession in three months’ time, supporting the message from the latest surveys and hard activity data that GDP is likely... 31st January 2023 · 5 mins read
