US Economics Update Fed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014 The publication today of the first set of interest rate projections by the FOMC heralded a historic change in the way that the Fed conducts monetary policy, but had little practical impact on market... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Nov) The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 2012 will be another year of sluggish growth We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat for now The Fed put off making changes to its communications strategy and potentially announcing a third round of quantitative easing until the new year. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Super committee failure not a disaster The apparent failure of the congressional deficit reduction super committee to reach any agreement is not the disaster it is being portrayed as by some commentators. As we argued in our most recent US... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks batten down the European hatches The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows that in the three months to October banks took steps to protect themselves from the European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the survey is still consistent with a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The rapid pace of money growth continued in September. To some extent the recent pick up reflects a jump in the precautionary demand for money, however, so it is not necessarily inflationary. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed action will do little to boost economy Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The most recent acceleration in the annual growth rates of M1 and M2 has been dramatic, but the latest moves largely reflect a rise in the precautionary demand for money. The pick-up in the growth... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update American Jobs Act is big but politically polarising President Obama's newly proposed $450bn job creation bill is equivalent to nearly 3% of GDP, so if it was passed by Congress as it stands it would certainly have a significant impact on GDP growth in... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke provides no clues on chances of QE3 In his speech at Jackson Hole, Chairman Ben Bernanke provided no real clues that the Fed is building up to more policy stimulus, such as QE3. In fact, he placed more onus on the politicians to help... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Expectations of QE3 appear premature In his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to fulfil the markets’ hopes that he will pave the way for a third round of asset purchases (QE3). And even if he did... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How reliable is the Philly Fed index? The plunge in the Philly Fed manufacturing index in August is not a sure-fire sign that a recession is imminent. The ISM index is more reliable. And even if the ISM index were to fall in line with the... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
