US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small business confidence waning The fairly sharp decline in the NFIB's latest small business optimism index suggests that it isn't just larger export-orientated firms that have seen a drop off in demand over the past few months. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the ISM manufacturing index overplaying the slowdown? There are a couple of reasons why the plunge in the ISM manufacturing index in June may be overplaying the extent of the recent slowdown. Even so, the clearer signs that events in Europe and China are... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No reason to fear rise in US net external liabilities The sharp deterioration in America’s net international investment position last year could be alarming as this is a key indicator of future financial crises. But a closer inspection shows that the US... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed content to play waiting game The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates remained strong in February, with our measure of the broadest M3 aggregate increasing by 6.0% over the past year. With the euro-zone crisis... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed remains cautious The statement released after today's FOMC meeting included a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, but the Fed can hardly be accused of acting as a cheerleader for the recovery... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth now likely to reach 2% this year The recent sustained run of stronger economic data, particularly on the labour market, has persuaded us to raise our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% this year, from 1.5%. We are also nudging up our 2013... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Euro crisis beginning to affect domestic credit The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer survey revealed that the ongoing crisis in the euro-zone is beginning to have a more marked impact on domestic credit, with foreign-owned banks tightening lending... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
