US Economics Update Economic impact of Hurricane Sandy likely to be small The flooding and power outages across large parts of the East Coast mean that Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly hit economic output in the short-term. Some of that output will be made up before the end... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Q3 GDP growth has downside risk Even though our 1.3% estimate for annualised third-quarter GDP growth is already well below the consensus forecast of 1.8%, we're a little concerned that growth could turn out to be even weaker... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economic growth may be far from over In a new academic paper, Robert Gordon speculates that per capita economic growth in the US could permanently stagnate, as fading innovation is compounded by headwinds from demography, education... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How has the Fed's reaction function changed? The Fed's decision to restart its large-scale asset purchases, this time with an open-ended agency MBS programme, is part of what could potentially be a much wider shift in the monetary policy... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed‘s purchases of MBS may have limits QE3 could eventually leave the Fed holding nearly 30% of all mortgage-backed securities, making it a bigger player in the market than either banks or mutual funds. This suggests that, unless economic... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 12) The annual growth rates of the various broad money aggregates have slowed recently, but they will accelerate again as the Fed restarts its quantitative easing, this time purchasing $40bn of mortgage... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed launches open-ended QE3 The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
