US Economics Update Rise in dollar against the yen to hit automakers most The recent strengthening of the dollar against the Japanese yen is unlikely to put a major dent in US inflation or activity. What’s more, the competitiveness of US manufacturers may not be eroded too... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Broad money growth has remained largely unchanged over the past six months, even after the Fed restarted its quantitative easing. The annual growth rate of our M3 measure picked up slightly to 6.4% in... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Retailers could be shifting to part-time employment The evidence is far from conclusive, but the recent decline in average weekly hours worked, particularly in the retail sector, may be partly explained by employers cutting hours to avoid paying the... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still loosening lending standards The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks have further loosened lending standards, particularly on loans to businesses. The net percentage of banks reporting in the... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal squeeze to continue With the full impact of the sequestration spending cuts, equivalent to roughly 0.7% of GDP, still to feed through, over the next 12 months the public sector will remain a significant drag on economic... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US recovery due to more than just the energy boom The boom in domestic energy production and the indirect benefits to the rest of the economy from lower natural gas prices have played only a minor role in the US economy's strong performance compared... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Despite the Fed’s continuing quantitative easing, the growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates have actually fallen over the past few months. The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama's budget will kick-start new round of negotiations President Obama's budget proposals for fiscal year 2014 will now kick-start a renewed round of negotiations in Congress that, at best, could result in a much-coveted grand bargain or, at worst if the... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US net debt to foreigners still manageable Despite endless claims that the US is hopelessly indebted to foreigners, which will eventually lead to a collapse in the dollar and/or rampant inflation, its net external liabilities are actually... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower vehicle prices will help to drive sales Renewed falls in vehicle prices probably won’t reduce CPI inflation by much. But, along with the latest drop in financing rates and loosening in loan criteria, they provide support to our view that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing starting to boost industry and employment In addition to the direct boost to GDP from homebuilding, the housing recovery has started to provide an indirect boost by supporting both industrial activity and employment. The possibility that the... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market improvement falling short of “substantial” The recent strengthening in the labour market is encouraging, but today’s news on the rates at which workers are being hired and are quitting is further evidence that it falls short of the... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
