US Economics Update US banks well placed to boost lending further The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke weighs the costs and benefits of more QE Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony confirmed that the FOMC is paying a lot more attention to the potential costs of continuing with its quantitative easing this year... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will continue to boost GDP Further increases in both house and equity prices would take net household wealth back above prerecession levels later this year, perhaps helping to boost GDP by around 0.7%. This wealth effect should... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More work needed to reduce budget deficit The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks see rebound in demand for business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals an encouraging bounce back in demand for business loans, which suggests that investment growth could accelerate over the first half of this... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Markit PMI leading the way or the odd one out? By pointing to an acceleration in manufacturing output growth to around 8% per year, the Markit manufacturing PMI is probably a bit too upbeat. After all, it stands out as being much more optimistic... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A brighter outlook for exporters Thanks to the recent pick up in overseas activity and the fall in the dollar, the outlook for US exporters has brightened. But without a major turnaround in economic activity in the euro-zone, export... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
