US Economics Update New Fed Chair unlikely to alter policy outlook much Contrary to the speculation over the past few days, regardless of whether Lawrence Summers, Janet Yellen or a third candidate gets the nod, we suspect that the outlook for US monetary policy would... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No systemic risk from Detroit bankruptcy The filing for bankruptcy by the City of Detroit last night does not pose a systemic risk to America’s financial system. The amount of debt that Detroit is likely to default on is small compared with... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke reiterates the party line Even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke just repeated the party line in a slightly different way in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today, the message that the tapering of QE3 is not set in stone... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Broad money growth has stabilised at a healthy rate, but the further slowdown in the growth rate of bank lending is disconcerting. 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses faring better The recent improvement in the sentiment among small businesses is an encouraging sign that the overall economy is becoming fundamentally stronger, although changes to taxes and regulations will... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The tide is turning for State & local governments Recent evidence on employment and construction spending has supported our view that a rebound in spending by State and local governments this year will offset some of the drag on GDP growth from a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could a '94 style bond bloodbath derail the recovery? The recent surge in Treasury yields is unlikely to develop into a 1994-style bond collapse, principally because the outlook for monetary policy is completely different. Furthermore, for those worried... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth has remained stable since late last year, with our measure of the M3 aggregate expanding by 6.2% over the 12 months to May. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market less sensitive to falls in S&L govt. investment The sharp drop in State and Local (S&L) government investment has had a smaller adverse impact on the unemployment rate than might have been expected. The ongoing fiscal consolidation may therefore... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households looking increasingly healthy The Fed’s latest US Financial Accounts (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts) highlight that in a few years’ time, US households will be well placed to contribute to a prolonged period of... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US lending further The FDIC’s latest banking figures show that, buoyed by falling loan default rates, the quarterly net income of US banks hit a record high of $40bn in the first quarter. The expiry of the unlimited... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in dollar against the yen to hit automakers most The recent strengthening of the dollar against the Japanese yen is unlikely to put a major dent in US inflation or activity. What’s more, the competitiveness of US manufacturers may not be eroded too... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Broad money growth has remained largely unchanged over the past six months, even after the Fed restarted its quantitative easing. The annual growth rate of our M3 measure picked up slightly to 6.4% in... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Retailers could be shifting to part-time employment The evidence is far from conclusive, but the recent decline in average weekly hours worked, particularly in the retail sector, may be partly explained by employers cutting hours to avoid paying the... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
