US Economics Update Delving into the Treasury’s spending schedule Despite the more promising tone of the recent discussions on Capitol Hill, there remains a risk that the debt ceiling will not be raised before Thursday. But a detailed look at the Treasury’s spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes point to December taper, but that was pre-shutdown The minutes from the contentious FOMC meeting last month reveal that despite the decision to delay the tapering of its asset purchases, which was described as a "relatively close call", "most" Fed... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Filling in the data gaps Some of the less well-known private sector alternatives to the official statistical releases, which have been suspended for the duration of the Federal government shutdown, suggest that the economy... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update On shutdown costs and the timing of a possible default The furloughing of 800,000 Federal employees, as part of the government shutdown that began today, will reduce spending by roughly $155 million per day. Over a whole year, the cost would be equivalent... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Shutdown only the opening act in budget negotiations The economic impact of the Federal shutdown that began today all depends on how long it drags on and, in particular, whether the acrimonious stand-off in Congress spills over into the negotiations to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Household net worth continues to rebound The Federal Reserve's latest financial accounts show that households continued to deleverage in the second quarter, while the increase in public sector debt was the smallest since the financial crisis... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risk of Federal government shutdown can't be dismissed Congress is about to enter the critical stage of negotiations to extend the Federal government's spending authority, which will otherwise expire when the new fiscal year begins on 1st October, and, in... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays taper; then fails to offer a clear explanation why The Fed's decision to maintain its asset purchases at $85bn per month was, given that most commentators expected a modest reduction in the pace today, unsurprisingly bond and equity positive. We... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America’s daunting long-term debt problem The CBO's latest projections show that America’s long-term debt problem is slightly less daunting than it previously appeared to be. Nevertheless, at some point policymakers will still need to tackle... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The slight moderation in the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregates should help to ease fears that the Fed's quantitative easing is putting upward pressure on price inflation. The growth... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US exporters benefitting from euro-zone recovery Over the next two years, US exporters will continue to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand, particularly in the euro-zone. But the global economy is unlikely to be strong enough to generate... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed still on course to begin QE taper in September While it's far from a certainty, the minutes from the FOMC meeting in late July appear to support our view that the Fed will begin to slow its monthly asset purchases at the next meeting in mid... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Vehicle sales may soon shift into a higher gear A fall in new vehicle prices and a further improvement in the availability of auto loans, especially to households with lower credit scores, may soon trigger a more rapid rebound in vehicle sales. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation bodes ill for potential GDP growth After incorporating the revisions to the historical GDP figures, America's recent productivity performance looks even worse. The stagnation in productivity isn't going to have any major impact on Fed... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The Fed's continuing monthly asset purchases haven't prevented a further slowdown in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, although our measure of the M3 aggregate suggests that broad... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
