US Economics Update America will further reduce its reliance on oil imports America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed begins gradual QE taper Our non-consensus view that the Fed would begin to wind down its monthly asset purchases without further delay in December was proved correct. As we suggested, at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Broad money growth continues to slow very gradually but, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure still at a healthy 5.8% in November, there is no reason for concern, particularly not when... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deal would deliver much-needed fiscal stability The modest bipartisan budget deal announced late yesterday, which would boost Federal spending by roughly $63bn over the next two years while at the same time reducing deficits by a cumulative $23bn... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will boost consumption growth The recent surge in equity prices and rapid rebound in house prices are boosting household wealth and will contribute to an acceleration in consumption growth over the next two years. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest December taper not out of the question The key takeaway from the minutes of the late October FOMC meeting is that, despite the government shutdown, the Fed was still open to tapering its monthly asset purchases at the mid-December meeting. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money remained at just under 6% in October. In contrast, the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates continue to trend lower. 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen plays the continuity card At her Senate nomination hearing today, the current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen carefully defended the Fed's policy and regulatory actions over the past few years, suggesting that her approach will... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs hit demand for loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that even though banks are still prepared to increase the supply of credit, the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs has undermined the demand... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed waits for the fog to clear The latest policy statement from the Fed today is remarkable for what it omits rather than includes. There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The truth probably lies in between the survey evidence Depending on which of the survey measures you believe, either the economic recovery is about to take off or fade away completely. The fundamentals, however, suggest that the truth probably lies... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep 13.) Our M3* measure of broad money, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, continued to grow at a healthy annual rate of nearly 6% in September. But the longer the Fed delays the tapering of... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary policy now a slave to fiscal uncertainty Even if Congress manages to keep the Federal government open and raise the debt ceiling next year, the continuing fiscal uncertainty is only going to make the Fed's job that much harder. That fiscal... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't expect a flood of economic reports It will be some weeks yet before all of the economic data releases that were postponed during the government shutdown are published. As the shutdown will have severely delayed the collection process... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Short-term debt ceiling fix still leaves plenty of uncertainty Financial markets have been buoyed by media reports indicating that both the Senate and the House are preparing to vote imminently on a bill to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
