US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The acceleration in the growth rates of both bank loans and our measure of M3 inthe first half of the year suggest that the economic recovery has continued tostrengthen. 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to the QE tapering plan Despite the contraction in first-quarter GDP, the falling unemployment rate and signs of a pick-up in inflation persuaded the Fed to stick to its existing plan and taper its asset purchases by a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy to benefit from a larger wealth effect The recent upward revisions to our equity price forecasts imply that the boost to GDP growth this year from the wealth effect will be larger than we previously thought. This is one reason why, despite... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr 14.) The rise in the annual growth rate of our measure of the M3* money stock, to a nine month high of 5.8% in April from 5.5% in March, is consistent with the recent rebound in core CPI inflation to... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey points to strong growth in business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey illustrates the remarkable divergence between bank loans to businesses, which have increased by nearly 9% over the past year, and bank residential mortgages... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE taper As expected, the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth wasn't enough to prevent the Fed from tapering its asset purchases by an additional $10bn, to $45bn per month, at the FOMC meeting that... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Looser credit conditions, lower loan rates and the stronger economic outlook have continued to boost bank lending to businesses. This supports our view that business investment growth will accelerate... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Latest labour market data refute Yellen's slack claims The latest round of jobs data released over the past few days would appear to refute Fed Chair Janet Yellen's recent claims that there is still considerable slack in the labour market. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Autos and ACA enrolees support consumption growth The rebound in auto sales in March and the rush to sign up for health insurance in recent weeks means that the slowdown in real consumption growth in the first quarter may not be as marked as... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update PCE inflation won't be this low for long The fall in PCE inflation to just 0.9% in February probably marks the low point in this cycle and we suspect that the Fed will be surprised by how fast inflation rebounds over the next 18 months. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the long-term unemployed ever get back to work? If there is little prospect of getting the long-term unemployed, who account for an unusually large share of the overall jobless rate, back into work then wage growth could accelerate faster than the... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to QE taper, drops unemployment threshold As expected, the Fed continued to taper its asset purchases and dropped its explicit unemployment rate threshold, reverting to a more qualitative form of forward guidance in today's policy statement... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
