US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth may be genuine It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher natural gas price may boost mining investment The biggest and longest-lasting impact from the recent rise in natural gas prices could be a boost to business investment in mining structures. That could add 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen indicates that the Fed will continue with QE taper The two key takeaways from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first congressional testimony on monetary policy is that neither the recent drop off in the pace of employment growth nor the turmoil in... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will the Fed's forward guidance evolve? With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, putting it very close to the Fed's threshold level of 6.5%, new Chair Janet Yellen could use her congressional testimony this week to signal how... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rents to boost core inflation Low vacancy rates, falling unemployment and faster earnings growth will drive the rents inflation higher over the next year or two. In addition to signs that wage growth is poised to accelerate, this... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Federal budget improvement may not last The decline in the Federal budget deficit over the past few years has been impressive, but the longer-term budget challenges linked principally to the aging of the population have still to be resolved... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't panic The sharp drop in January's ISM manufacturing index has led to some speculation that the US recovery might be coming off the rails, particularly as it followed an unexpectedly weak gain in payroll... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New PPI data won't predict CPI inflation any better The revamp of the producer prices data will provide a more comprehensive measure of pipeline price pressures, but it may not give us a greater insight into where consumer price inflation is heading. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mortgage demand plummets The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that the jump in borrowing costs last year is still undermining demand for residential mortgages. The more recent drop back in mortgage rates... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 8 reasons why wage growth is poised to take off The current rates of wage and price inflation may be unusually low, but we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dwindling slack in the labour market will trigger a rise in wage inflation this... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Broad money growth continues to slow but, given the rebound in long-term interest rates over the past six months, we suspect that moderation reflects a waning speculative demand for money and is not a... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
