US Economics Update Fed pushes up rate projections Although the Fed opted to keep the language in the FOMC statement that there will be a "considerable time" between the end of the asset purchases in October and the first rate hike, we suspect that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence to continue climbing We’re not convinced that equity prices will continue to boost consumer confidence, but an acceleration in wage growth should allow confidence to rise further above its long run average. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in auto loans not another bubble The NY Fed's latest data on household debt help to alleviate concerns that a bubble in sub-prime auto loans is forming. Relative to households incomes, auto loan debt is still at comparatively low... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ISM indices in rate-hiking territory The ISM activity indices have risen to levels that previously prompted the Fed to raise interest ratesand the yield curve to steepen. This is unlikely to force the Fed into action immediately – in... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Credit flowing more freely to small businesses Recent trends in the small business sector suggest that the labour market has continued to strengthenand that the loosening in credit conditions will allow businesses to boost investment. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new policy rule for the post-crisis era Most monetary policy rules, many of which suggest that interest rates should already have risen, arelargely useless in the post-crisis world. If we make adjustments to allow for a lower neutral rate... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Widespread strengthening in demand for loans The strengthening in mortgage demand evident in the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggeststhat the housing recovery is back on track after having stalled in the first half of the year... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE tapering The Fed's policy announcement was largely as expected, with the monthly asset purchases reduced by an additional $10bn, to $25bn per month. But subtle changes to the statement and Philadelphia Fed... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The acceleration in the growth rates of both bank loans and our measure of M3 inthe first half of the year suggest that the economic recovery has continued tostrengthen. 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to the QE tapering plan Despite the contraction in first-quarter GDP, the falling unemployment rate and signs of a pick-up in inflation persuaded the Fed to stick to its existing plan and taper its asset purchases by a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
