US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 5.0% in September butbank loans are still expanding at a healthy 7.7% clip. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market fundamentals remain solid The slowdown in employment growth in August and September will probably delay the first interest rate hike until early 2016, but it doesn’t appear to be the start of a sustained deterioration in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging external debt trigger a dollar crisis? Although America’s current account deficit is still a modest 2.4% of GDP, well below the 6.3% peak reached in late 2005, net external debt has more than quadrupled since mid-2007. Liabilities to... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of our M3 money measure accelerated to a five-month high of 5.6% in August, from 5.2%. The growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are even higher. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monthly (Jul.) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate rebounded to a robust 5.2% y/y in July, suggesting that there is little risk of a sustained deflation or a marked slowdown in real economic growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed bow to market turmoil and delay rate hikes? There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories are the wildcard for third-quarter GDP growth After an unexpected surge at the end of the second quarter, inventories are shaping up to be the big wildcard in third-quarter GDP growth. We expect inventories to subtract 0.5% points, with third... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will events in China force the Fed to delay US rate lift-off? The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Decline in the participation rate is mostly structural The decline in the labour participation rate to a near 40-year low of 62.6% in June largely reflects structural factors, such as the aging population, rather than cyclical weakness. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is Puerto Rico the next Greece? Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla's comment last week that "the debt is not payable" has raised fears that a Puerto Rico debt crisis could have a bigger impact on US financial markets than the crisis... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
