US Economics Update Stakes are higher than normal for 2024 election The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the expected head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the... 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update The impact of yet another government shutdown The direct hit to the economy from even an extended government shutdown beginning next week would be modest. But it could also result in delays to key data releases, including the September employment... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Rising corporate bankruptcies another warning sign Rising bankruptcy filings by large corporations are another reason to doubt that the economy will continue to grow at close to its potential rate, as the Federal Reserve now seems to believe. 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed doubles down on 'higher for longer' The Fed doubled down on its mantra that interest rates will remain higher for longer, with its updated projections suggesting that the economy will enjoy the softest of soft landings and core... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fixed-rate debt blunting impact of Fed hikes The prevalence of fixed-rate debt suggests the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will continue to deal less damage to the economy than they might have done in the past. But higher rates are still likely to... 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Strikes remain few and far between The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike action aimed at the Big Three automakers should have only a trivial effect on the broader economy. More generally, despite the tightness of labour market... 19th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update How concerning is the weakness in GDI? The recent weakness of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is only partly because it includes the losses now being incurred by the Federal Reserve. Even after excluding those, GDI paints a much weaker picture... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor M1 narrow money continues to contract at a double-digit annual pace, as higher interest rates temper demand for low-return deposits. Broader money growth is not faring quite as badly, since higher... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market almost back into balance A growing number of indicators suggest that the labour market is no longer much tighter than it was in 2019 and that, as a result, wage growth is also likely to slow towards pre-pandemic levels soon... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SAVE to soften blow as student loan payments resume The SAVE student loan plan eases the burden on low-income households and should reduce the economic impact as repayments resume in October. Nonetheless, with the hit to disposable incomes just one of... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Slower pace of labour market loosening Falling vacancies in sectors where wage growth has been particularly strong will provide some comfort to the Fed, however the JOLTS survey showed that the broader labour market remained resilient in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising disability not a drag on labour supply The sharp rise in the share of the population with a disability may reflect the legacy of the pandemic. But with the rise in disability rates doing little to keep people out of work, it isn’t... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation driven by women The resurgence in female prime-age participation to a record high is helping to support labour force growth, but the recent rapid pace of improvement is likely to fade soon. 17th July 2023 · 2 mins read
