US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms continue to hoard cash overseas The cash held overseas by US firms has continued to grow at a rapid pace, rising to almost $2.5tn in 2015. The substantial tax bill most firms would face if they attempted to bring this cash home... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was unchanged at a five-month low of 89.8 in September, although it is still at a level that, historically, has been consistent with real... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market slack no longer shrinking Since the start of this year the rate of improvement in labour market conditions has slowed to a crawl. While a welcome rebound in the participation rate helps to explain why the unemployment rate has... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) With the growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate at a solid 4.4% y/y in July and bank loan growth at an even stronger 7.7% y/y, the economy appears to be in good health. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear The recent surge in short-term market interest rates in the US is linked to the upcoming change in money market fund rules rather than any underlying financial problems 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the sharp rebound in June payrolls as evidence that labour market conditions continue to improve, which should generate a more pronounced acceleration in wage... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) has inevitably triggered an immediate negative reaction in global financial markets, but we do not anticipate a significant sustained tightening in US... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moves the goal posts yet again Despite leaving its economic projections largely unchanged today (GDP growth expectations were revised down slightly, inflation forecasts were revised up slightly) the FOMC nevertheless cut its... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey The latest NFIB survey suggests that small businesses are still intent on hiring additional workers, even though finding suitably qualified employees is getting harder. Unfortunately, small businesses... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations are rising not falling The decline in long-term inflation expectations to a record low in the University of Michigan’s June consumer confidence survey won’t prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, not least because... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
