US Economics Update Is the manufacturing sector heading for another downturn? The prospect of a renewed downturn in manufacturing activity is a concern, particularly with activity in the mining sector also likely to be hit by lower oil prices. Despite the weakness of some of... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy There is still considerable uncertainty over whether Congress will vote to approve a new healthcare bill but, if it does, the short-term effects on the economy would probably be mildly positive and... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the flatter yield curve signal a slowdown in GDP growth? Yield curve inversions have been near-perfect leading indicators of recessions over the past forty years, but there is little evidence to suggest that the flattening of the curve that we have seen... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates and plans for balance sheet normalisation As widely expected, the Fed raised its policy rate target by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.00% and 1.25% and, despite the recent weakness of core inflation, Fed officials still expect to... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms shun banks for other sources of finance Although the sharp slowdown in C&I bank loans over recent months has received plenty of attention, total corporate sector debt actually expanded by a record amount in the first quarter, suggesting... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wage growth not being held back by mix of jobs created The slowdown in payroll employment growth over the past year or so has been concentrated in low wage occupations, indicating that the overall mix of jobs being created has improved. This makes the... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling showdown looms again Congress might need to raise the debt ceiling by late August, a little earlier than previously anticipated, and it has become increasingly clear that, even though the Republicans control both Houses... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed plans to begin balance sheet normalisation with baby steps The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Fed intends to gradually phase out the reinvestment of maturing securities in its portfolio. The upshot is that the balance sheet will shrink more... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump budget only an opening gambit The White House budget proposal for the 2018 fiscal year, which incorporates severe cuts to non-defence discretionary spending and entitlement spending, is never going to pass the Senate, which... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a risk does a China slowdown pose to the US? The economic slowdown underway in China is perhaps the biggest external risk facing the US economy. However, growth would need to slow far more than we think is likely to knock the US recovery off... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Auto sector woes not enough to knock economy off course A flood of off-lease vehicles has hit used car prices and new vehicle sales, and the glut of vehicles still in the pipeline suggests that the sector’s woes will worsen in the months ahead. But this is... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest full employment is close Recent surveys show that the strength of business sentiment is fuelling a recovery in capital investment while ensuring that firms’ demand for labour is as strong as ever. With the pool of unemployed... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey shows weaker loan demand The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals that the recent weakness in bank lending is principally due to weak demand for loans rather than banks tightening lending standards. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Consumption growth set to rebound in second quarter After coming to a near standstill in the first quarter, we expect consumption growth to rebound to more than 2% annualised in the second quarter. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect even... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US about to withdraw from NAFTA? Only a few weeks after the Treasury passed up the chance to label China a currency manipulator, a new report from Politico suggests that the White House is close to finalising an Executive Order on... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump's new tax plan looks a lot like the old one The “new” tax plan that the White House unveiled today looks a lot like President Donald Trump’s old economic plan from the election campaign, with deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
