US Economics Update Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, despite the slowdown in payroll employment growth last month, labour market slack continues to diminish. They also provide further evidence that this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loose financial conditions open the door to more Fed hikes Despite the Fed raising interest rates twice in the past four months, broad financial conditions in the US have actually loosened. The current calm in financial markets, if sustained, would be another... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Another weak first quarter and ‘soft’ versus ‘hard’ data The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care failure doesn’t derail prospects for tax reform The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the health care vote threaten Trump’s fiscal stimulus? Thursday’s key House vote on the Republicans’ health care bill has been attracting a lot of attention in the markets amid fears that a defeat would threaten President Donald Trump’s plans for a major... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates, but leaves forecasts unchanged As everyone expected following the recent blitz by officials to prepare the markets, the Fed raised the fed funds target by another 25bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, but officials left their... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform delay means we need to tweak our GDP forecast With the prospect of an early deal on tax reform fading fast, we now assume that the fiscal stimulus won’t be passed by Congress until the start of next year and, as a result, we are revising down our... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump struggling to implement his agenda President Donald Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress this evening offered only a little additional clarity on the tax reforms and additional spending the White House will be seeking from... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New trade balance calculation would make little sense The changes to the official trade statistics apparently being considered by the Trump administration may bolster the case for renegotiating trade deals, but they would give a distorted picture of... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen again stresses fiscal uncertainty Fed Chair Janet Yellen at least kept the possibility of a March rate hike alive in today’s Congressional testimony, but she offered no strong hints that such a move was actually coming and we still... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could Trump politicise US statistics? The Trump administration’s alarming tendency to dismiss objective facts as “fake news”, which can be countered with their own “alternative facts”, has led to claims that the President and his team... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode At the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, the Fed issued a near-identical statement to the one released in December, which strongly suggests it has no intention of raising interest rates again at... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update President Trump: What we’ve learned so far Despite the chaos of the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency, financial markets have so far been remarkably unperturbed. But if Trump’s incendiary executive orders damage the prospects of more... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates & looks to accelerate tightening in 2017 As universally expected, the Fed today raised interest rates for the second time in this economic cycle, with that hike coming a full year after the first increase and more than seven years after the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
