US Economics Update Will a move towards full expensing boost investment? The shift to full expensing of firms’ capital investments included in Republicans’ tax plans would provide a temporary boost to the economy by encouraging businesses to bring forward investment... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans flesh out tax cut proposals The unified tax proposals released by Republicans today offer more detail than before, but there are still a number of missing pieces that make it hard to estimate the overall cost of the plan... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed undeterred by weak core inflation The Fed’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.0-1.25%, as well as its long-anticipated move to formally announce the start of the balance sheet normalisation process next month, came... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last While the recovery in business investment looks set to continue, the latest surveys suggest that firms will soon have to increase the pay they are offering if they want to hire additional workers. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount Estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey have been rising in recent days, but we still expect the short-term negative impact on activity and employment to be modest. Unfortunately, it now... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What do immigration changes mean for the economy? The announcement by the White House that it will phase out the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, which provides temporary work permits for 800,000 children of illegal... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rates of the monetary aggregates remained strong in August, but bank loan growth is still muted. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy Hurricane Harvey is a national tragedy, but the impact on the national economy will be minimal. We might see a small uptick in initial jobless claims in early September and a very modest adverse... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling negotiations about to enter crucial stage Congress should act to raise the debt ceiling by mid-October, but a short shutdown looks inevitable. Moreover, the tensions between the White House and the various Republican factions in Congress make... 28th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s passionate defence of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation in her Jackson Hole speech today isn’t going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy? Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed suggests balance sheet normalisation will begin in September As widely expected, the Fed left its policy settings unchanged today, while hinting that it will begin the process of winding down its balance sheet as soon as September. The Fed will have plenty of... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What does the health care debacle mean for tax reform? The apparent failure of the Senate Republicans to agree on a health care bill to replace Obamacare does not mean that President Donald Trump’s plans for a fiscal stimulus are dead and buried. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
