US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What have we learnt since the election? In the year since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, events outside of the US have had a bigger impact on the economy, but we doubt that will remain the case. We expect a deficit-financed... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Oct.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Office Survey (SLOS) paints a mixed picture, with banks loosening lending standards on business loans and residential mortgages, but tightening standards on some types of... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity growth back from the dead The sharp rebound in productivity this year, after falling outright in 2016, is positive news for the economy and suggests that real wages will pick up more rapidly soon. But with employment growth... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans’ tax plan edges closer to the finish line The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) The Fed issued a very similar statement at the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting today, which included an upgrade to its assessment of economic growth. On balance, this is a marginally more... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the slump in the saving rate a danger? The decline in the household saving rate, to a near-decade low of 3.1% in September, is largely explained by the accompanying surge in household net wealth to a record high. Capital gains mean that... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Risk of Taylor as Fed Chair shouldn't be ignored If President Donald Trump is serious about being a “low-interest rate guy”, markets are probably right to brush off John Taylor’s chances of being nominated for Fed Chair. That said, we don’t agree... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NAFTA withdrawal no longer out of the question The demise of the NAFTA agreement would have a modest negative impact on the US economy. But if a unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration signalled the beginning of a broader lurch toward... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Earnings repatriation unlikely to boost the economy The Republicans’ tax plans could result in a sizable chunk of the $2.6tn of earnings held overseas by US firms being repatriated. However, although the tax revenues from such a move could help to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys underline that labour market conditions are exceptionally tight, and suggest that the recent pick-up in wage and investment growth has further to run. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will a move towards full expensing boost investment? The shift to full expensing of firms’ capital investments included in Republicans’ tax plans would provide a temporary boost to the economy by encouraging businesses to bring forward investment... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
