US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Jan.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a reacceleration in the growth rate of business loans, although auto loans look set to weaken further. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update March rate hike coming Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed Chair pretty much summed up her entire tenure; policy was left accommodative but there were hints it will be tightened gradually in the future. The more hawkish... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has so far been exceptionally gradual, which helps to explain why there’s been next to no impact on the monetary aggregates. Meanwhile, bank lending growth has... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably) The household saving rate fell to a 12-year low of 2.4% of disposable income in December and, based on the recent surge in the values of equities and real estate, it could fall all the way to zero. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Infrastructure spending still a tough sell in Congress Although stronger infrastructure investment could provide a significant boost to the economy, President Donald Trump’s plan to make private investors do most of the heavy lifting is unlikely to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not yet a serious problem As a net oil importer, the recent rise in oil prices should eventually be a negative for the US economy, but the near-term impact may actually be positive. Mining investment is set to rebound in the... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal stimulus will provide only temporary boost The Republicans' long-awaited tax reform bill, which looks set to be signed into law this week, represents the first major legislative victory for President Donald Trump and should provide a modest... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed raises rates, still projects 3 hikes next year As widely expected, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 1.25% and 1.50%. Despite factoring in the imminent fiscal stimulus into their GDP growth... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year Although small firms are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, the latest surveys suggest that business investment growth may soon start to slow. But with demand for labour as strong as... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will fiscal and monetary policy interact? The soon-to-be-finalised fiscal stimulus could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy slightly more aggressively next year, although the potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policies... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The monetary aggregates reveal a divergence, with M2 growth slowing to a six-year low of 5.0% in October, while growth in our M3 measure accelerated to a two-and-a-half-year high of 6.1%. As short... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform: what happens next? The Republicans appear to be making reasonable progress on tax reform but, with several key challenges yet to be resolved, there is still a long way to go before a final bill is ready for President... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
