US Economics Update Durables consumption is the other shoe to drop In contrast to other rate-sensitive areas of spending, durable goods consumption has held up well in recent months, boosted by the tax cuts. Nevertheless, as the fiscal stimulus fades and interest... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households well placed to withstand higher rates With debt servicing costs still low and delinquency rates stable, households’ debt burdens are unlikely to emerge as a source of trouble, even as rising interest rates cause economic growth to slow... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak loan demand points to slower GDP growth The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that the stagnation in third-quarter business equipment investment was no one-off and that there are few signs of a turnaround in the slumping... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will housing drag the economy under again? The housing market is unlikely to cause another crisis as it did in 2007. But the slowdown in housing activity is a clear sign that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are starting to take their toll on the... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update December rate hike coming As universally anticipated, the Fed left rates on hold today and there was nothing in the policy statement to suggest that officials are wavering from their plans to hike interest rates again in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Still few signs of pick-up in productivity growth There are few signs that the recent tax cuts have boosted the economy’s supply side and, with business investment growth moderating, the prospect of a marked pick-up in productivity growth is fading... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to lead to another fiscal stimulus With the Democrats likely to win control of the House, while the Republicans maintain a slim majority in the Senate, the chances of another fiscal stimulus being agreed after the midterm elections... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s monetary framework requires more tweaks With the effective fed funds rate getting close to the top of its target range again, there’s a good chance that the Fed will combine a 25bp hike in the fed funds target range in December with another... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Although narrow money growth rebounded in September, the Fed’s quantitative tightening will continue to exert downward pressure over the months ahead. Furthermore, signs are emerging that the Fed’s... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs will cause growth to slow Although the Fed’s rate hikes have so far been modest compared to previous tightening cycles, actual borrowing costs faced by households and firms have risen more markedly. That is a key reason why we... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pressing ahead with rate hikes The Fed stuck to the script today, pushing ahead with another rate hike and signalling through the accompanying statement and economic projections that it will raise interest rates four times between... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) A combination of the Fed’s balance sheet rundown and rising interest rates have pushed narrow money growth down to an eight-year low, but growth in the broader money and credit aggregates have held up... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war with China not a big risk to the outlook Recent developments suggest that the trade dispute with China will continue to escalate over the coming months, with a rising possibility that by early next year all bilateral trade could be subject... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
