US Economics Update Tariff delay not an olive branch to China The three-month delay to the imposition of tariffs on more than half of the $300bn of Chinese imports, originally scheduled to take effect next month, is obviously designed to avoid a politically... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Currency manipulator label points to further escalation The Trump administration’s move to label China a currency manipulator may have few practical implications, but it underscores the speed at which tensions are now escalating. The key risk is that the... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Lower rates fuelling a recovery in loan demand The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that the sharp fall in market interest rates over the past year is feeding through to a turnaround in loan demand. With global growth still slowing and... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump brings trade tensions back to boiling point The announcement by President Donald Trump of further tariffs on Chinese imports has rattled the markets, but we have long suspected that it was only a matter of time before the trade dispute... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed lowers rates by 25bp, but in no rush to cut again The Fed reduced the fed funds rate by 25bp — to between 2.00% and 2.25% — at today’s FOMC meeting, but it was arguably a “hawkish” rather than “dovish” cut, which supports our view that the next... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is core inflation about to surprise on the upside? The rebound in the three-month annualised rate of core PCE inflation to a seven-year high of 2.5% in June, together with evidence that unit labour costs have been rising more rapidly than thought... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update 737 Max woes will continue to weigh on GDP growth The grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft delivered a hit to business equipment investment and net exports in the second quarter, reducing annualised GDP growth by 0.25% points. A similar hit to... 29th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Budget deal removes uncertainty, but adds to debt risk The budget deal agreed by the Trump administration and Congress removes the risk of a damaging debt ceiling crisis in September and prevents a contraction in discretionary spending from October... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Does the Fed actually need to cut rates? Despite the run of stronger activity data in recent weeks, the deterioration in the survey evidence, lingering uncertainty over trade policy and the prospect of a prolonged period of below-target... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis brewing Reaching a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling by early September should be a relatively straightforward exercise, but the increasingly confrontational relationship between President Donald... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Leading indicators point to slowdown, not recession Leading economic indicators underline that most of the recent weakness has been confined to the export-orientated industrial sector, suggesting the risks of an outright recession are contained for now... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell signals that July rate cut a done deal Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress indicates that, despite the trade truce following the recent G20 meeting and the strength of employment growth in June, the Fed intends to push... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Lower rates failing to boost business investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a contraction in business equipment investment and suggest that labour market conditions are starting to soften. 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Latest pick-up in productivity growth unlikely to last The recent acceleration in productivity growth to a decade high of more than 2% y/y has renewed hopes that we could finally be seeing a structural pick-up linked to a new wave of technological... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Currency intervention would fail without Fed’s full support President Donald Trump’s recent tweets have sparked speculation that, as part of an escalation of the trade war, he could order the Treasury to intervene in foreign exchange markets to manipulate the... 8th July 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government investment boom won’t last The unprecedented surge in state & local government investment, which added close to 0.4%pts to annualised GDP growth in both the first and second quarters, is unlikely to be sustained. This is... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
