US Economics Update US Recession Watch (Feb.) The recent re-inversion of the Treasury yield curve and the sharp sell-off in equities, due to growing fears that the new coronavirus will develop into a full-blown pandemic, have reignited fears that... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Is the plunge in job openings a concern? The sharp fall in job openings over the past year appears to be a lagged response to the earlier slowdown in hiring intentions rather than a sign that labour market conditions are about to deteriorate... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will the new coronavirus affect the US economy? With flights to and from China halted and the handful of domestic cases isolated, the risk of a coronavirus epidemic developing in the US – and the potentially devastating economic disruption that... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How long can the current expansion continue? The Great Moderation in the volatility of GDP growth and price inflation, which began in the 1980s, came to an abrupt end with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 but, a decade later, what... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Taking stock of Sanders’ surge The surge in Bernie Sanders’ perceived chances of the winning the Democratic nomination could yet weigh on the stock market if he continues to build momentum in upcoming primaries. Even so, our... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on hold; tweaks IOER rate The almost unchanged statement issued at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting suggests that Fed officials currently don’t believe the disruption caused by the new coronavirus warrants the type... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory adjustment almost over A sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation weighed heavily on GDP growth in the second half of 2019 but, with that adjustment now largely over, the turning inventory cycle looks set to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s recent asset purchases and repo auctions have reversed more than half of the earlier quantitative tightening. Even so, it is the Fed’s interest rate cuts that have been the far more... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Wuhan coronavirus spreads to US The new Wuhan coronavirus has apparently already spread to the US – with a first case reported in Washington State – but we don't expect it to cause the sort of panic that hit travel and retail sales... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One deal reduces downside risks The Phase One trade agreement signed today removes the downside risk of a never-ending escalation of tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other’s imports, but the modest scale of the roll-back... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Tide starting to turn for business investment There is mounting evidence to suggest that business investment growth is set to rebound, which should help drive overall GDP growth back above its potential pace in the second half of this year. 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is America at risk of Dutch disease? The surge in crude oil and natural gas production over the past decade has eliminated the petroleum-related trade deficit, but there is a risk that, echoing what happened in other countries that... 9th January 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jan.) The chances of a recession in 2020 are still barely higher than the normal background risk. Our composite 12 month ahead probit model – based on the yield curve, financial conditions and various... 9th January 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update ISM too downbeat on manufacturing outlook The continued slide in the ISM manufacturing index is increasingly hard to explain, but the wider evidence suggests the more upbeat Markit manufacturing PMI is providing a more accurate gauge of... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
