Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Where are the residential construction layoffs? Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home... 25th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update It's Trump's world, his cabinet just live in it Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we... 25th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
US Economics Update Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS continues to show a normalising labour market Despite the sharp fall in job openings, September’s JOLTS data show a labour market normalising rather than rapidly deteriorating. With October’s payrolls gain likely to have been hampered by... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Residual seasonality something to note, not fear Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the labour market really that strong? The unexpectedly strong 254,000 gain in payroll employment in September was a welcome surprise, but the deterioration in most other labour market indicators suggests this was a one-off rather than the... 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting? We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS point to further easing in wage growth The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Port strike won’t rock the boat The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Sellers lose grip on the market Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opts to start loosening cycle with a bang The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections point to smaller 25bp cuts at the remaining two FOMC... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Low saving rate not a major concern The continued decline in the saving rate, which is now close to a 16-year low, is not a major concern given the recent surge in household net wealth. Furthermore, as the saving rate is calculated from... 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
