US Economics Update Fiscal support needed, but Fed still has more to do The Fed’s revival of financial crisis-era programs and a huge ramp-up in the pace of its open-ended Treasury purchases in recent days could help to stem some of the bleeding in financial markets. But... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update GDP to plunge in Q2, but hit can still be contained The rapid escalation of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak suggests that the economic damage will be even larger than we anticipated only a few days ago, and we are now pencilling in a 10%... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed unleashes full crisis playbook The Fed’s decision to slash interest rates to near-zero won’t stop the economy falling into a recession, but the package of liquidity-boosting measures will help prevent credit markets seizing up... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What more can the Fed do? The Fed has already slashed interest rates and flooded the markets with liquidity, but it will have to go further in the coming weeks, with a return to near-zero interest rates and a resumption of... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update More aggressive containment measures to hit growth The direct economic impact of President Donald Trump’s European travel ban will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive measures to contain the pandemic over the next few days – with... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Coronavirus outbreak to prompt fiscal response It looks increasingly likely that the escalating coronavirus outbreak will be met with a larger fiscal response, which should help to offset some of the economic damage. 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed will lower rates to near-zero again Based on the continuing slump in stock markets and the global spread of the coronavirus, we agree with the view in markets that the Fed will cut interest rates to near-zero within the next couple of... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Plunge in oil price another short-term headwind The plunge in global oil prices should be close to neutral for the US, but we suspect it will still knock a few tenths off annualised GDP growth in the second quarter, as the big hit to mining... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update The economic impact of a pandemic Our current working assumption is still that the number of coronavirus cases in the US is restricted to the low tens of thousands which, in a country of more than 325 million, would represent an... 5th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to follow up emergency cut with more action In a dramatic turnaround from last week, when even the most dovish of Fed officials didn’t appear to support any additional policy loosening, the Fed announced an emergency inter-meeting 50bp rate cut... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Spread of virus in US will inevitably hit GDP growth It has become clear over the past couple of days that the global spread of the coronavirus cannot be contained. The spike in reported cases within the US suggests that we are in the early stages of a... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US Recession Watch (Feb.) The recent re-inversion of the Treasury yield curve and the sharp sell-off in equities, due to growing fears that the new coronavirus will develop into a full-blown pandemic, have reignited fears that... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
