US Economics Update What to watch for on election night With the race for control of Congress close and unprecedented numbers voting early this year, the results on election night are likely to be unusually volatile. If the polls are accurate and Democrats... 2nd November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update ‘Blue wave’ wouldn’t guarantee quick fiscal stimulus While the chances of a pre-election fiscal deal remain slim, markets appear to believe that a Democratic clean sweep of next month’s elections would result in a major post-election stimulus package... 21st October 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Virus remains key risk to near-term outlook The upturn in coronavirus infections in the Midwest isn’t in itself a major concern, but a more widespread resurgence in cases over the winter would raise the risks of the economic recovery going into... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey suggests inflation has further to rise Despite high unemployment, the latest NFIB survey shows small businesses are struggling to hire qualified workers, while inventory levels are exceedingly lean. In contrast to September’s softer CPI... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of M1 rose to a new record high in August but, with growth in the broader monetary aggregates now easing and bank loans continuing to decline, there is still little chance of... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to keep rates at near-zero until 2023 and beyond The FOMC’s updated economic and rate projections show that officials expect to leave the fed funds rate at near-zero until at least 2023 and probably well beyond that. With the five-year Treasury... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How much slack is in the labour market? With initial jobless claims still running at close to one million per week, it could be argued that, at 8.4% in August, the unemployment rate is not capturing the full extent of the slack in the... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Services weakness to weigh on employment The jobs report due on Friday should show employment continuing to rebound in August, but the ongoing weakness of demand in sectors like leisure and hospitality – which account for a higher share of... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in production has much further to run The recovery in manufacturing output has been relatively muted up to this point but, with goods consumption surging and, as a result, inventories now looking very lean for this stage in the cycle, we... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rates of the main monetary aggregates remain unusually elevated, but the growth rate of bank loans has fallen back. Furthermore, although those monetary aggregates are significantly... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed plotting its next steps The Fed is very close to introducing changes to its policy framework that would explicitly allow for an overshoot of the inflation target to compensate for the undershoot over the past decade. Those... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption to keep rising regardless of fiscal delay Even though Congress failed to prevent the $600 additional UI payments from expiring last Friday, we still expect a deal in the coming weeks which will offset the continued hit to incomes from the... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still likely to provide more accommodation While the Fed left its policy settings unchanged and opted not to strengthen its forward guidance at the conclusion of its meeting today, its downbeat assessment of the economic outlook still suggests... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update The lasting impact of the virus on the labour market Even though unemployment is likely to continue declining faster than in previous recoveries, we still expect the unemployment rate to remain elevated for years, falling to 8.7% by the end of 2020 and... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Pull-back in activity only partly due to new restrictions The high-frequency data suggest renewed fears about the coronavirus are starting to weigh on consumption even in states that haven’t moved to reimpose restrictions, reinforcing our view that the pace... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
