US Economics Update What explains the surge in household employment? The incredibly strong gains in the household survey measure of employment over the final two months of last year, which have come at the same time as the more closely-watched payroll measure showed... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Hawkish Powell consistent with March rate hike In his Senate re-nomination hearing today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from other officials. We expect the fed funds policy range to reach 1.00% to 1.25% by... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed “QT” could include outright asset sales this time As hinted at in the December FOMC minutes, we expect the Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet later in 2022. They would start by allowing maturing assets to run off, but if longer-term bond... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed pivot even more hawkish than expected The Fed delivered an even more hawkish shift at the December meeting than we had anticipated, with the pace of tapering doubled and officials now forecasting three rate hikes next year. Reflecting... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market slack falling to generational lows The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron impact With cases of the new Omicron variant being reported on several continents now, there is a good chance that it is already present in the United States. We still know almost nothing definitive about... 28th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Build Back Better to have limited near-term benefits The Build Back Better Act, which was passed by the House today, would provide only a small boost to economic growth next year. With the economy already running up against capacity constraints and any... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions even tighter The September Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey shows labour market conditions are far tighter than the 4.6% unemployment rate suggests, and points to continued rapid wage growth. With... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Shortages holding back investment and productivity While attention has been focused on how shortages and surging prices are holding back real consumption, those same factors are weighing even more heavily on business equipment investment. Faced with... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed launches taper, still thinks inflation is transitory The Fed unveiled its QE taper today, as widely expected, but is still insisting that the surge in inflation is "largely" transitory, which suggests the doves have the upper hand. 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Deepening labour shortages point to lasting damage The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released yesterday added to signs that labour shortages are still getting worse at a time when many of the temporary factors that were supposedly... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling deal may only delay the inevitable The entrenched positions of both sides suggest the deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December may only delay rather than avert a crisis. And in that scenario, we doubt that the Treasury minting a... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Taper to begin in November Fed officials gave a heavy hint today that the QE taper will be formally announced in November and, presumably in response to concerns that the surge in inflation won't be as transitory as they... 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
