US Economics Update Delta contributing to worsening labour shortages The continued surge in job openings and elevated quits rate in July suggest that labour shortages are still intensifying, which will put further upward pressure on wages. (See Chart 1.) There is... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest data show that growth in the main monetary aggregates is slowing even before the Fed starts tapering its monthly asset purchases, although it remains strong by historic standards. We’ll be... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Uncertainties surround QE taper timing and pace With the Delta-linked resurgence in coronavirus infections adding to the downside risks to economic growth and officials still split on exactly what qualifies as “substantial further progress” toward... 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update New fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming The bipartisan infrastructure deal, which could be passed by end-September, would provide no meaningful boost to the economy over the next couple of years. The $3.5trn spending package that Democrats... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages pushing wage growth higher The ongoing surge in both job openings and quits in June suggests that labour shortages are still getting worse. While the acceleration in payroll gains in recent months suggests that is not proving... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics How could Biden reshape the Fed? Whether President Joe Biden chooses to reappoint Jerome Powell or to nominate Lael Brainard to be the next Fed Chair, it is unlikely in itself to have much impact on the near-term outlook for monetary... 5th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although the headline data show bank loans stagnant, that is mostly due to the forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans and mortgage securitisations, with the broader evidence pointing to an... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed offers first hint on tapering The Fed took a small step toward the eventual tapering of its asset purchases by altering the language in the statement released today, but officials appear to be in no rush. We still expect an... 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys suggest labour shortages persist In contrast to the stronger payrolls figures released last week, the latest survey data suggest that labour shortages remain acute. That supports our view that the acceleration in employment growth in... 7th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inflation “transitory”, but Fed now projects rate hikes The Fed continued to stick to its view that the surge in inflation "largely" reflects "transitory factors", but officials revised their inflation projections up significantly for this year and the... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to surge in wage and price inflation The surge in job openings and voluntary quits in April add to the survey and anecdotal evidence that labour shortages are becoming increasingly acute. Those shortages look set to persist for some time... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the key monetary aggregates and bank lending has turned up over recent months, driven in part by the Fed’s continued asset purchases. 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages intensifying The NFIB and JOLT surveys published today add to evidence from the April employment report that labour shortages are widespread, pushing up prices and potentially acting as a brake on the recovery. 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update How big a risk is the slowdown in vaccinations? The sharp drop in demand for vaccines in recent weeks is a risk to our assumption that the rollout reaches critical mass over the coming months. That could mean infections and hospitalisations remain... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Loosening credit standards will support activity The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that lending standards are being eased across the board, which will help keep consumption and investment growth solid even as support from fiscal... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains dovish despite strength of recovery Although it took a more upbeat tone on the economic outlook and acknowledged that inflation has risen in its statement released after today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed offered no hints that it was... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
