US Economics Focus Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour... 4th December 2024 · 16 mins read
US Economics Focus Will Trump get his new tax cuts? Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
US Economics Focus Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it... 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
US Economics Focus Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi... 12th March 2024 · 11 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
US Economics Focus Trump's new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from... 31st January 2024 · 15 mins read
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 26th January 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economics Focus Resurgence in labour force has further to run The resurgence in the labour force over the past year mainly reflects the ongoing boost to participation from increasing opportunities for women to combine parenthood with work, more young people... 11th December 2023 · 15 mins read
US Economics Focus Could an AI boom transform the budget outlook? With the budget deficit rebounding over the last year and Congress characterised by partisan dysfunction, the odds of a full-blown fiscal crisis developing over the next decade are rising. The US... 4th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
US Economics Focus Wage growth to slow as labour market conditions ease As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages... 30th November 2022 · 16 mins read
