US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The November ISM manufacturing survey suggests that supply shortages are yet to ease significantly, but it does at least echo anecdotal reports that they are no longer getting worse. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.) The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The strong 1.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in October came as the unwinding of earlier hurricane-related disruption and a partial recovery in motor vehicle production boosted manufacturing... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 1.7% m/m rise in retail sales in October, driven by a similarly strong increase in underlying control group sales, suggests that real consumption will rebound to between 3% and 4% annualised in... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 0.9% m/m surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The stronger 531,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October suggests the economy is rebounding rapidly from the initial Delta wave but, despite easing virus concerns, there was absolutely no sign of a... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $80.9bn in September, from $72.8bn, should soon start to reverse as oil exports recover from the disruption caused by Hurricane Ida. But ongoing global... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The weakness in headline durable goods orders last month was driven by another fall in transport orders, which mostly reflects worsening supply problems in the auto market. The strong increase in... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 1.3% fall in industrial production in September partly reflects a temporary hit to mining and chemicals output from Hurricane Ida and a drop in cooling demand, as the weather returned to seasonal... 18th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter. 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more muted 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September is not as encouraging as it looks, since a temporary Delta-related drop back in the prices of high contact services masked a... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The disappointing 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September probably still counts as “decent” enough for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next month. But alongside signs that... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response US International Trade (Aug.) We expect that the widening in the trade deficit to $73.3bn in August, from $70.3bn, will soon start to reverse, as exports catch up with imports. But there is a risk over the coming months that... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.1 in September, from 59.9, mostly reflects an artificial boost from lengthening supplier delivery times rather than any improvement in demand... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
