US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The solid gains in both exports and imports in December are a signal that global supply chain problems are easing, although the further widening in the trade deficit suggests that net trade will be a... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 467,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January is even stronger than it looks, as it came despite the spike in absenteeism driven by the Omicron virus wave and was accompanied by significant upward... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.6 in January, from 58.8, suggests the Omicron virus wave hasn’t had nearly as big an impact on the factory sector as implied by some of the early... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4), Durable Goods (Dec.) The acceleration in GDP growth to 6.9% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.3% in the third, mainly reflects a record surge in inventories, which will be partly reversed in the first quarter of... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output is probably a sign that Omicron-related employee absenteeism was already weighing on output by the end of last year. We expect an even bigger hit in... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.9% plunge in retail sales in December in part reflects what appears to be a problem with seasonal adjustment process around the holidays. The initial Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) CPI inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.0% in December and, although the headline rate has probably peaked now, core CPI inflation increased to 5.5% last month and will continue to climb toward 6% over... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) While the 199,000 gain in non-farm payrolls once again disappointed the consensus, a much larger gain in the household measure of employment and a tepid rise in participation pushed the unemployment... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rebound in the trade deficit in November means that net trade is now on track to be a small drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter, rather than a small boost as we had previously... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace of industrial activity growth remained reasonably solid at the end of last year, but the survey came too early to capture the potentially significant... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The November durable goods and income & spending data are consistent with our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.5% annualised, but point to a slowdown in early 2022. 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.7% increase in manufacturing output last month suggests that shortages are gradually easing. With demand still strong, the latest surveys are still consistent with manufacturing output... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) With prices rising sharply last month, the muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests that consumption was little changed in real terms. That won’t stop the Fed from accelerating the pace of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, taking the annual CPI inflation rate up to a near 40-year high of 6.8% but, with energy prices falling sharply in recent weeks, last month probably marked... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labour market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant, possibly due to the... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
