US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, falling gasoline prices and the housing recovery, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to a five-year high of 76.2 in May, from 69.0... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.3% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in April is another sign that growth is holding up quite well. We anticipate a 5% annualised gain in business investment in the second quarter, with... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The sharp increase in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a near-six-year high of 83.7 in May, from 76.4, is due to a fruitful combination of a number of events. It appears... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further falls in core inflation may make some Fed officials concerned about the possibility of very low inflation, or even deflation. This could mean we are jumping the gun a bit by expecting the Fed... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Apr.) The delayed effects of previous falls in commodity prices and signs of a further easing in industrial activity will continue to weigh on pipeline price pressures. Over the next year at least... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 13) April’s retail sales data provided the strongest sign yet that households have largely shrugged off January’s tax hikes. This is perhaps partly due to the recent plunge in gasoline prices, which has... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The better than expected 165,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April, combined with the 114,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, will go a long way toward soothing fears of... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar. 13) The sharp decline in the monthly trade deficit to $38.8bn in March, from $43.6bn the month before, is largely due to a distortion caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year Holiday in China. There is... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slowdown in global economic growth appears to have hit American manufacturers in April. The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.7 in April, from 51.3 in March, erasing almost all of the gain... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The sharp rebound in April's Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 68.1, from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, was driven by the decline in gasoline prices and the continued rally in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The pick-up in first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 0.4% in the final quarter of last year, was a little below the consensus forecast at 3.0%, but still impressive in a quarter that was... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The sharp decline in durable goods orders in March is another indication that, after a pretty strong first quarter, the recovery is losing momentum again. 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Mar.) With inflation remaining unusually low, the Fed is under little pressure to slow or halt QE. We expect it to continue with open-ended asset purchases until early next year, although it may still slow... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Coming after a weak retail sales report for March, the sharp drop in April's University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence to a nine-month low of 72.3, from 78.6, is another sign of a slowdown... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprise fall in retail sales in March adds to other evidence that the US economy is experiencing another spring slowdown. But we doubt that the easing in economic growth in the coming quarters... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb. 13) The larger than expected narrowing in the international trade deficit in February is scant consolation when some of the more up-to-date figures suggest that economic growth has started to lose a bit... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
